Influences of Temperature and Precipitation on Historical and Future Snowpack Variability over the Northern Hemisphere in the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model
Influences of Temperature and Precipitation on Historical and Future Snowpack Variability over the Northern Hemisphere in the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model
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第二代加拿大地球系统模型中温度和降水对北半球历史和未来积雪变化的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Merryfield
中科院分区：
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作者：
R. Sospedra‐Alfonso;W. Merryfield
摘要本研究探讨了温度和降水对北方半球积雪变化的作用，用于第二代加拿大地球系统模式（CanESM 2）的历史（1850-2005）和未来（2006-2100）气候模拟。月雪水当量（SWE）在1月至4月和降水P或温度T预测之间的线性关系的强度被发现是一个S形函数的平均温度在雪季到指定的月份。对于P预测，这种关系的强度增加寒冷的雪季，而T预测增加温暖的雪季。这些行为在很大程度上是由积雪期间的日温度低于冰点来解释的。研究发现，存在一个阈值温度（−5±1°C，取决于雪季的月份，并且在很大程度上与排放情景无关），代表一个交叉点，低于该交叉点，雪季足够冷，P.
AbstractThis study examines the changing roles of temperature and precipitation on snowpack variability in the Northern Hemisphere for Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) historical (1850–2005) and future (2006–2100) climate simulations. The strength of the linear relationship between monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) in January–April and precipitation P or temperature T predictors is found to be a sigmoidal function of the mean temperature over the snow season up to the indicated month. For P predictors, the strength of this relationship increases for colder snow seasons, whereas for T predictors it increases for warmer snow seasons. These behaviors are largely explained by the daily temperature percentiles below freezing during the snow accumulation period. It is found that there is a threshold temperature (−5±1°C, depending on month in the snow season and largely independent of emission scenario), representing a crossover point below which snow seasons are sufficiently cold that P...