Assessing the dynamic material criticality of infrastructure transitions: A case of low carbon electricity
Assessing the dynamic material criticality of infrastructure transitions: A case of low carbon electricity
复制标题
评估基础设施转型的动态材料关键性：低碳电力案例
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.01.052
复制
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
J. Steinberger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Roelich;D. Dawson;Phillip Purnell;C. Knoeri;Ruairi Revell;Jonathan Busch;J. Steinberger
现有基础设施系统的脱碳需要以前所未有的规模动态推广技术。关键材料供应的潜在中断可能会危及向低碳基础设施的过渡，并进一步损害更广泛的能源安全，因为低碳技术依赖于这些材料，而化石燃料能源基础设施则不然。目前，严重性被定义为供应中断的可能性和相关系统遭受该中断的风险的组合。我们在此定义的基础上开发了一种量化关键性的动态方法，该方法可以监控向低碳基础设施目标过渡期间关键性的变化。这使我们能够评估不同技术途径实现特定目标的相对风险，并降低“锁定”当前有吸引力但可能对未来至关重要的技术的可能性。为了进行演示，我们将我们的方法应用于拟议的英国电力系统转型的关键性，重点是钕。我们预计，到 2050 年，钕的供应中断潜力将减少近 30%；然而，我们的研究结果表明，由于越来越多地采用依赖于钕的技术，低碳电力生产的重要性在此期间增加了九倍。
Decarbonisation of existing infrastructure systems requires a dynamic roll-out of technology at an unprecedented scale. The potential disruption in supply of critical materials could endanger such a transition to low-carbon infrastructure and, by extension, compromise energy security more broadly because low carbon technologies are reliant on these materials in a way that fossil-fuelled energy infrastructure is not. Criticality is currently defined as the combination of the potential for supply disruption and the exposure of a system of interest to that disruption. We build on this definition and develop a dynamic approach to quantifying criticality, which monitors the change in criticality during the transition towards a low-carbon infrastructure goal. This allows us to assess the relative risk of different technology pathways to reach a particular goal and reduce the probability of being ‘locked in’ to currently attractive but potentially future-critical technologies. To demonstrate, we apply our method to criticality of the proposed UK electricity system transition, with a focus on neodymium. We anticipate that the supply disruption potential of neodymium will decrease by almost 30% by 2050; however, our results show the criticality of low carbon electricity production increases ninefold over this period, as a result of increasing exposure to neodymium-reliant technologies.