Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Sea Ice Extent and Snow Depth Using Stratospheric Ozone Information
Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Sea Ice Extent and Snow Depth Using Stratospheric Ozone Information
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DOI：
10.1029/2019jd031770
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发表时间：
2020-11
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Stone;S. Solomon;D. Kinnison
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文献类型：
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作者：
K. Stone;S. Solomon;D. Kinnison
春季臭氧对北半球特定地区4月地表温度的预报潜力已在以前报道过。有证据表明，早春的北极平流层臭氧充当了冬季极地涡旋极端事件的代理。在这里，我们利用最先进的化学-气候模式、再分析和观测，将臭氧对地表温度的预测潜力扩展到北半球冰冻圈的各个方面。3月北极平流层臭氧极端值高和低年份之间的海冰比例和海冰范围差异表明，化学-气候模式模拟和观测结果之间的总体差异非常吻合，差异不仅发生在4月，而且在某些地区延伸到下一个冬季。在俄罗斯和阿拉斯加东南海岸的一些地区也有很大的雪深差异。这些差异一直持续到初夏，此时积雪减少。使用留-三-出交叉验证方法中的条件经验模型，3月总臭氧柱能够准确预测在臭氧极端年份70%以上的时间内观测到的海冰范围和雪深异常的迹象，特别是在白令海峡和格陵兰海地区，这可能对航线和测试气候模型有用。
The forecast potential of springtime ozone on April surface temperatures at particular locations in the Northern Hemisphere has been previously reported. Evidence suggests that early springtime Arctic stratospheric ozone acts as a proxy for extreme events in the winter polar vortex. Here, using a state‐of‐the‐art chemistry‐climate model, reanalysis and observations, we extend the forecast potential of ozone on surface temperatures to aspects of the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere. Sea ice fraction and sea ice extent differences between years of March high and low Arctic stratospheric ozone extremes show excellent agreement between an ensemble of chemistry‐climate model simulations and observations, with differences occurring not just in April but extending through to the following winter season in some locations. Large snow depth differences are also obtained in regional locations in Russia and along the southeast coast of Alaska. These differences remain elevated until early summer, when snow cover diminishes. Using a conditional empirical model in a leave‐three‐out cross validation method, March total column ozone is able to accurately predict the sign of the observed sea ice extent and snow depth anomalies over 70% of the time during an ozone extreme year, especially in the region of the Bering strait and the Greenland Sea, which could be useful for shipping routes and for testing climate models.