Estimation and Projection of Non-Linear Relative Sea-Level Rise in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan
Estimation and Projection of Non-Linear Relative Sea-Level Rise in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan
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DOI：
10.1080/07055900.2015.1069254
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发表时间：
2015-08
期刊：
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
Han Soo Lee;A. Kaneko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Han Soo Lee;A. Kaneko
摘要利用集合经验模式分解(EEMD)和长期海平面记录，估计了2050年和2100年日本内海及其周围未来海平面上升(SLR)。集合经验模式分解是一种自适应的数据分析方法，可以将海平面记录分解为从高频到低频的本征模式函数和残差。在海平面记录中，残差被认为是一种非线性趋势。从1993年到2010年，来自欧洲东部沿海地区的SIS在德山的平均单反趋势为3.00 mm y−1，略低于同期基于测高的全球单反3.3±0.4 mm y−1。SLR的不确定性是通过考虑海平面的年代际变化来估计的。2050年和2100年德山的SLR分别为0.19±0.06m和0.56±0.18m。与SIS中的其他站相比，太平洋沿岸站在2100年表现出更大和更快的SLR。SLR不仅由海水的质量和体积变化引起，而且还由其他因素引起，如局部下沉、构造运动和河流流量。作为EEMD的残差，SLR的非线性趋势被解释为影响海平面预算的局部因素的总和。
ABSTRACT Future sea-level rise (SLR) in and around the Seto Inland Sea (SIS), Japan, is estimated in 2050 and 2100 using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and long-term sea-level records. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition, an adaptive data analysis method, can separate sea-level records into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from high to low frequencies and a residual. The residual is considered a non-linear trend in the sea-level records. The mean SLR trend at Tokuyama in the SIS from EEMD is 3.00 mm y−1 from 1993 to 2010, which is slightly lower than the recent altimetry-based global rate of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm y−1 during the same period. Uncertainty in SLR is estimated by considering interdecadal variations in the sea levels. The resulting SLR in 2050 and 2100 for Tokuyama is 0.19 ± 0.06 m and 0.56 ± 0.18 m, respectively. The stations along the coast of the Pacific Ocean display a greater and more rapid SLR in 2100 compared with other stations in the SIS. The SLR is caused not only by mass and volume changes in the sea water but also by other factors, such as local subsidence, tectonic motion, and river discharge. The non-linear trend of SLR, which is the residual from EEMD, is interpreted as the sum of the local factors that contribute to the sea-level budget.