Control of a highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in the GB poultry flock
Control of a highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in the GB poultry flock
复制标题
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2007.0542
复制
发表时间：
2007-09-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Ghani, Azra C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Truscott, James;Garske, Tini;Ghani, Azra C.
在欧洲的家禽中发现H5N1病毒增加了大多数工业化家禽种群受到感染的风险。在这里，使用英国（GB）家禽种群的详细数据，我们表明，目前计划的基于行动限制的干预措施预计可以控制大多数疫情。如果大多数传播是通过既无法追踪又基本上不受当地房屋密度影响的机制发生的，那么控制措施未能将疫情控制在小范围内的可能性就会上升到很高的水平。我们表明，需要加强控制工作在GB的预测是爆发是否超过20个受感染的处所。在这种情况下，局部反应性疫苗接种和局部扑杀都不可能产生实质性影响。这些应急干预措施中最有效的是大半径（10公里）的局部扑杀和全国性疫苗接种。然而，这些方法的影响有限，但必须与其巨大的不便和成本相平衡。
The identification of H5N1 in domestic poultry in Europe has increased the risk of infection reaching most industrialized poultry populations. Here, using detailed data on the poultry population in Great Britain ( GB), we show that currently planned interventions based on movement restrictions can be expected to control the majority of outbreaks. The probability that controls fail to keep an outbreak small only rises to significant levels if most transmission occurs via mechanisms which are both untraceable and largely independent of the local density of premises. We show that a predictor of the need to intensify control efforts in GB is whether an outbreak exceeds 20 infected premises. In such a scenario neither localized reactive vaccination nor localized culling are likely to have a substantial impact. The most effective of these contingent interventions are large radius ( 10 km) localized culling and national vaccination. However, the modest impact of these approaches must be balanced against their substantial inconvenience and cost.