The correlated impacts of fuel consumption improvements and vehicle electrification on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions in China
The correlated impacts of fuel consumption improvements and vehicle electrification on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions in China
复制标题
油耗改善和汽车电动化对中国汽车温室气体排放的相关影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.046
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发表时间：
2019-01-10
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Hao, Han
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhao, Fuquan;Liu, Feiqi;Hao, Han
能源安全和环境问题引起了人们对道路运输业能源消耗和温室气体排放的极大关注。随着经济的发展，中国的出行需求和物流需求将继续上升。为了解决相关问题，州政府正在采取与电动汽车（EV）推广和燃油经济性法规相关的政策。本研究从生命周期的角度出发，建立了一个自下而上的模型框架，分析了基于不同政策的六种情景，计算了机动车车队的温室气体排放量。如果仅考虑燃油经济性法规，道路运输部门的温室气体排放将在2047年达到峰值。然而，结合电动汽车的部署，高峰将在2026年提前到来。从短期来看，更严格的燃油经济性法规会带来更好的效果。如果没有电动汽车，企业要满足燃油经济性法规将比引入电动汽车更难。然而，从长远来看，随着电动汽车比例的提高，温室气体排放将进一步减少。此外，由于信贷政策，电动汽车的引入将削弱燃油经济性法规的影响，特别是对乘用车。商用车车队中电动汽车的缺乏将使燃油经济性法规更加重要。商用车辆，特别是卡车，将占整个车队温室气体排放量的大部分。简而言之，政府应持续专注于燃油经济性法规，以实现车辆温室气体排放量的早期和相对较低水平的峰值。同时，电动汽车的推广将产生长期的去碳化效应。此外，应采取更有效的措施来减少卡车温室气体排放。(C)2018爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有
Energy security and environmental issues have drawn great attentions to the energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the road transport sector. With economic development, travel demands and logistics demands will continue to rise in China. To solve the associated problems, policies related to electric vehicle (EV) promotion and fuel economy regulations are being adopted by the state government. Six scenarios, based on different policies, are analyzed to calculate vehicle fleet GHG emissions in this research by developing a bottom-up modeling framework from a life-cycle perspective. When only fuel economy regulations are considered, GHG emissions from the road transport sector will reach their peak in 2047. However, combined with EV deployment, the peak will arrive earlier, in 2026. In the short term, more stringent fuel economy regulations exhibit better results. Without EVs, fuel economy regulations will be tougher for corporations to meet than with the introduction of EVs. However, in the long term, with a higher proportion of EVs, GHG emissions will further decrease. In addition, the introduction of EVs will weaken the effects of fuel economy regulations, especially for passenger vehicles, due to credit policies. The lack of EVs in the commercial vehicle fleet will impart more significance to the fuel economy regulations. Commercial vehicles, particularly trucks, will account for the majority of GHG emissions by the whole vehicle fleet. In brief, the government should persistently focus on the fuel economy regulations to achieve an early and relatively low-level peak in vehicle fleet GHG emissions. Meanwhile, the promotion of EVs will have the long-term effect of de-carbonization. In addition, more effective measures should be taken to reduce the truck GHG emissions. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.