Worst case scenario as stakeholder decision support: a 5- to 6-m sea level rise in the Rhone delta, France
Worst case scenario as stakeholder decision support: a 5- to 6-m sea level rise in the Rhone delta, France
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作为利益相关者决策支持的最坏情况：法国罗纳河三角洲海平面上升 5 至 6 米
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Vafeidis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Marc Poumadère;C. Mays;Gabriela Pfeifle;A. Vafeidis
风险政策和公众态度似乎与预测气候变暖的研究脱节，部分原因是人类活动。为了走出这种停滞的情况下，一个5至6米的海平面上升（SLR）引起的崩溃WAIS和发生在2030年至2130年期间的最坏情况下的情况下构建和应用于罗纳河三角洲。利用罗纳河三角洲的数据制定了物理和社会经济情景，并提交给利益攸关方，供为期一天的研讨会使用。集团过程分析表明，尽管潜在的利益分歧，但在面对5-6米SLR问题时，调动了高度的信任和合作。情景研讨会提出了两套建议。当2030年宣布WAIS崩溃的风险时，一个保守的“观望”选项被决定。WAIS崩溃后，到2050年产生一个有效的1米SLR上升，决定总撤退和渲染的罗纳河三角洲的水文功能。可以考虑将这些成果转化为当今的政策决定。这里开发的方法可以应用于其他风险对象和情况，并为政策演习和危机预防服务。
Risk policy and public attitudes appear disconnected from research predicting warmer climate partially due to human activity. To step out of this stalled situation, a worst case scenario of a 5- to 6-m sea level rise (SLR) induced by the collapse of the WAIS and occurring during the period 2030–2130 is constructed and applied to the Rhone delta. Physical and socio-economic scenarios developed with data from the Rhone delta context are developed and submitted to stakeholders for a day-long workshop. Group process analysis shows a high level of trust and cooperation mobilized to face the 5–6 m SLR issue, despite potentially diverging interests. Two sets of recommendations stem from the scenario workshop. A conservative “wait and see” option is decided when the risk of the WAIS collapse is announced in 2030. After WAIS collapse generates an effective 1 m SLR rise by 2050, decisions are taken for total retreat and rendering of the Rhone delta to its hydrological function. The transposition of these results into present-day policy decisions could be considered. The methodology developed here could be applied to other risk objects and situations, and serve for policy exercises and crisis prevention.