The MILESTONES modeling framework: An integrated analysis of national bioenergy strategies and their global environmental impacts
The MILESTONES modeling framework: An integrated analysis of national bioenergy strategies and their global environmental impacts
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里程碑建模框架：国家生物能源战略及其全球环境影响的综合分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.005
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jan Schüngel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Thrän;R. Schaldach;M. Millinger;Verena Wolf;Oliver Arendt;Jens Ponitka;S. Gärtner;N. Rettenmaier;K. Hennenberg;Jan Schüngel
在国家和国际范围内，生物能源政策既影响环境，也影响用于食品、饲料和纤维的生物质供应。为了支持政策制定者，有必要以综合评估的形式提供来自不同科学学科的知识和方法。因此，我们制定了里程碑框架，将国家生物能源系统和全球土地利用系统之间的联系作为一种综合建模方法进行建模。它建立在一套经过良好测试的三款车型(磁铁、LandShiIFT和BENSIM)的基础上。通过评估未来德国生物能源战略在全球一级和整个生物质供应链上的环境影响，展示了原型的功能。案例研究的结果表明，一方面，德国的生物能源战略对国际市场价格影响不大，但另一方面，国际层面的土地利用政策强烈影响着任何德国生物能源战略的环境绩效。综合评估德国生物能源战略的全球影响。结合国家能源系统、全球贸易和土地利用模式。粮食作物生物燃料往往比来自木材的生物燃料更具成本竞争力。德国生物能源使用的影响对国际土地利用政策最敏感。
Bioenergy policies affect both the environment and biomass availability for food, feed, and fiber on a national and international scale. To support policy makers, knowledge and methods from different scientific disciplines in the form of integrated assessments is necessary. Therefore we developed the MILESTONES framework which models the links between the national bioenergy system and the global land-use system as an integrated modeling approach. It builds on a set of three well-tested models (MAGNET, LandSHIFT and BENSIM). The prototype's functionality was demonstrated by assessing the environmental impacts of future German bioenergy strategies on a global level and along the entire biomass provision chain. The results from the case study show that, on the one hand, German bioenergy strategies have little effect on international market prices, but on the other hand land-use policies on an international level strongly influence the environmental performance of any German bioenergy strategy. Integrated assessment of the global effects of German bioenergy strategies.Combination of national energy system, global trade and land-use models.Biofuels from food crops tend to be more cost-competitive than when they are from wood.The impact of Germany's bioenergy use is most sensitive to international land-use policies.