Sustainable Futures in the Built Environment to 2050 - A Foresight Approach to Construction and Development
Sustainable Futures in the Built Environment to 2050 - A Foresight Approach to Construction and Development
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2050 年建筑环境的可持续未来 - 建筑和开发的前瞻性方法
DOI：
10.1002/9781119063834.ch14
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Coker P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Coker P
我们获取、运输和使用能源的方式正在发生巨大变化，因为用户的期望、技术进步以及负担能力、安全性和脱碳的政策要求。建筑物和城市内能源系统的规划、设计和运行越来越受到国家能源系统的影响。我们设想，到2050年，各种可再生能源（特别是风能和太阳能）将在城市能源需求中占很大份额，一些城市希望利用当地资源满足所有能源需求。除了更大的本地一代，城市将在平衡供需方面发挥越来越积极的作用。能源系统的自动化将增加复杂性，而设计优化将得到越来越复杂的计算机工具的帮助。优选的解决方案将对当地条件高度敏感。通过灵活控制设备和安装本地储能，能源用户将有越来越多的机会参与解决这些挑战并分享回报。这些趋势为建筑环境专业人员带来了许多挑战，他们必须能够驾驭这种复杂性。本章探讨了到2050年预计将发生的重大技术变化，以及当前的分析技术、数据和模型，这些技术、数据和模型将为下一代设计工具和系统控制提供信息。
The ways that we access, transport and use energy are changing dramatically in the face of user expectations, technological advancement and the policy imperatives of affordability, security and decarbonisation. The planning, design and operation of energy systems within buildings and cities is increasingly influenced by and influential on national energy systems. We envisage that variable renewable energy sources (especially wind and solar) will provide a significant share of cities’ energy needs by 2050, with some cities aspiring to meet all energy needs from local resources. Alongside greater local generation, cities will take an increasingly active role in balancing supply and demand. Automation within energy systems will increase complexity, whilst design optimisation will be aided by ever more sophisticated computer tools. Preferred solutions will be highly sensitive to local conditions. By flexibly controlling appliances and installing local energy storage, energy users will have increasing opportunities to participate in solving these challenges and sharing in the rewards. These trends bring many challenges for built environment professionals, who must be able to navigate this complexity. This chapter examines the remarkable technology changes expected by 2050 alongside current analysis techniques, data and models that will inform the next generation of design tools and system controls.