Discrepancies in cigarette brand sales and adult market share: are new teen smokers filling the gap?
Discrepancies in cigarette brand sales and adult market share: are new teen smokers filling the gap?
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DOI：
10.1136/tc.6.suppl_2.s38
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发表时间：
1997-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Shopland, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cummings, K M;Hyland, A;Shopland, D
目的：调查成年吸烟者转换香烟品牌的程度和类型。为了评估基于成人吸烟模式变化的实际和预计卷烟品牌销售之间的差异，设计：数据分析来自于对11966名年龄在25-64岁之间的吸烟者的队列跟踪调查，这些吸烟者来自美国20个社区，在1988年至1993年期间作为国家癌症研究所社区戒烟干预试验的一部分进行随访。受访者在1988年和1993年被问及他们目前的香烟品牌。品牌转换是在1988年和1993年吸烟者报告不同的香烟品牌时推断出来的。公司转换被定义为品牌转换，与1988年使用的品牌相比，1993年的品牌被确定为不同的母公司。一个比率的措施计算，以反映收益的市场份额从品牌转换和品牌转换，戒烟和死亡，为特定的卷烟品牌，在1988年和1993年之间的损失。这一比率的措施是用来估计预计单位销售额最畅销的高档品牌在1993年，并与实际单位销售额为同一year.RESULTS：我们估计，平均9.5%的吸烟者切换香烟品牌和7.6%切换公司每年。大多数确实更换了香烟品牌的人都从高档品牌转向了折扣或普通品牌。在1988年到1993年之间，万宝路、骆驼和纽波特等最畅销的高档品牌，失去的成年吸烟者数量是增加的四倍。虽然高档品牌香烟失去了一些吸烟者的折扣和普通香烟，但超过50%的损失是由于吸烟者戒烟或死亡。实际单位销售额大大高于预期销售额（基于成人市场份额）万宝路和骆驼，但不是为其他brands.CONCLUSIONS：大多数吸烟者的品牌忠诚度。价格似乎是促使成年吸烟者转换品牌的一个重要因素。看来，在非吸烟者中招募新客户对于万宝路和骆驼等高档卷烟品牌保持与往年相当的销售额是必要的。
OBJECTIVE: To examine the extent and type of cigarette brand switching by adult smokers. To evaluate discrepancies between actual and projected cigarette brand sales based on changes in adult smoking patterns.DESIGN: Data analysed come from a cohort tracking survey of 11966 cigarette smokers aged 25-64 years from 20 communities in the United States who were followed between 1988 and 1993 as part of the National Cancer Institute's Community Intervention Trial for Smoking Cessation.OUTCOME MEASURES: Respondents were asked about their current cigarette brand in 1988 and 1993. Brand switching was inferred when a smoker reported a different cigarette brand in 1988 and 1993. Company switching was defined as brand switching for whom a different parent company was identified for the 1993 brand compared with the brand used in 1988. A ratio measure was computed to reflect gains in market share from brand switching and losses from brand switching, quitting, and death, for specific cigarette brands, between 1988 and 1993. This ratio measure was used to estimate the projected unit sales for top-selling premium brands in 1993 and was compared with actual unit sales for the same year.RESULTS: We estimate that an average of 9.5% of smokers switched cigarettes brands and 7.6% switched companies each year. Most of those who did switch cigarette brands changed from a premium brand to a discount or generic brand. Between 1988 and 1993, top-selling premium brands such as Marlboro, Camel, and Newport, lost about four times as many adult smokers as they gained. Whereas premium brand cigarettes lost some smokers to discount and generic cigarettes, over 50% of losses were due to smokers quitting or dying. Actual unit sales were substantially higher than projected sales (based on adult market share) for Marlboro and Camel, but not for other brands.CONCLUSIONS: Most smokers are brand loyal. Price seems to be an important factor motivating brand switching among adult smokers. It appears that recruitment of new customers among the ranks of non-smokers is necessary for premium cigarette brands such as Marlboro and Camel to maintain sales comparable to previous years.