Cumulative risk of breast cancer to age 70 years according to risk factor status: Data from the Nurses' Health Study
Cumulative risk of breast cancer to age 70 years according to risk factor status: Data from the Nurses' Health Study
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/152.10.950
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发表时间：
2000-11-15
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Rosner, B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Colditz, GA;Rosner, B
由于生育危险因素与乳腺癌发病率之间的时间关系，作者建立了一个考虑时间的非线性泊松回归模型，并总结了到70岁的风险。生殖危险因素、良性乳腺疾病、绝经后激素的使用、体重和饮酒被评估为危险因素。1980年，在58,520名年龄在30-55岁之间的女性中，截至1994年6月1日，发现了1761例浸润性乳腺癌病例。所有风险都经过了多变量调整。良性乳腺疾病病史与70岁前乳腺癌累积风险增加57%(95%可信区间：43%，73%)相关。与从不使用激素的女性相比，使用50-60岁年龄段的绝经后雌激素的女性患乳腺癌的风险增加23%(95%可信区间：6%，42%)。使用雌激素和孕激素十年会使70岁的风险增加67%(95%可信区间：18%，136%)。与从不饮酒相比，从18岁开始每天喝一杯酒会使70岁的风险增加7%(95%可信区间：0%，13%)。使用绝经后10年无人反对的激素会显著增加患乳腺癌的风险，而补充孕激素会进一步增加这种风险。
Because of the temporal relations between reproductive risk factors and incidence of breast cancer, the authors developed a nonlinear Poisson regression that accounts for time and summarizes risk to age 70 years. Reproductive risk factors, benign breast disease, use of postmenopausal hormones, weight, and alcohol intake were evaluated as risk factors. Among 58,520 women aged 30-55 years in 1980, followed through June 1, 1994, 1,761 incident invasive breast cancer cases were identified. All risks are multivariate adjusted. History of benign breast disease is associated with a 57% increase (95% confidence interval (CI): 43%, 73%) in cumulative risk of breast cancer by age 70 years. Use of unopposed postmenopausal estrogen from ages 50-60 years increases risk of breast cancer to age 70 by 23% (95% CI: 6%, 42%) compared with a woman who never uses hormones. Ten years of use of estrogen plus progestin increases risk to age 70 years by 67% (95% CI: 18%, 136%). Compared with never drinking alcohol, one drink per day from age 18 years increases risk to age 70 by 7% (95% CI: 0%, 13%). Use of unopposed postmenopausal hormones for 10 years significantly increases the risk of breast cancer, and the addition of progestin further increases the risk.