MODEL FOR EVALUATING NETWORKS UNDER CORRELATED UNCERTAINTY--NETCOR
MODEL FOR EVALUATING NETWORKS UNDER CORRELATED UNCERTAINTY--NETCOR
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0733-9364(2000)126:6(458
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发表时间：
2000-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Wei-Chih Wang;L. Demsetz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wei-Chih Wang;L. Demsetz
施工活动经常受到天气、劳动力和现场条件等因素的影响。当几个活动受到同一因素的影响时，它们的持续时间可能是相关的。如果一条路径上沿着的许多活动是相互关联的，路径持续时间的可变性将增加，可能增加在目标日期前完成项目的不确定性。本文提出了基于仿真的模型NETCOR（NETworks under CORrelated uncertainty）来评估活动持续时间相关时的进度网络。基于每个活动对每个因素的敏感性的定性估计，活动的持续时间分布（祖父母）的不确定性分布到几个因素子分布（父母）。每个子分布进一步分解为一个分布族（子），每个子分布对应一个因子条件。通过从给定模拟迭代的相同条件子分布中进行采样来捕获相关性。NETCOR集成电路
Construction activities are often influenced by factors such as weather, labor, and site conditions. When several activities are influenced by the same factor, their durations may be correlated. If many activities along a path are correlated, the variability of path duration will increase, possibly increasing the uncertainty of completing the project by a target date. This paper presents the simulation-based model NETCOR (NETworks under CORrelated uncertainty) to evaluate schedule networks when activity durations are correlated. Based on qualitative estimates of the sensitivity of each activity to each factor, uncertainty in an activity's duration distribution (grandparent) is distributed to several factor subdistributions (parents). Each subdistribution is broken down further into a family of distributions (children), with each child corresponding to a factor condition. Correlation is captured by sampling from the same-condition child distributions for a given iteration of the simulation. NETCOR integrat...