An analysis on investment policy effect of China’s photovoltaic industry based on feedback model
An analysis on investment policy effect of China’s photovoltaic industry based on feedback model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.08.103
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发表时间：
2014-12
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Chaoqing Yuan;Sifeng Liu;Yingjie Yang;Ding Chen;Zhigeng Fang;L. Shui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chaoqing Yuan;Sifeng Liu;Yingjie Yang;Ding Chen;Zhigeng Fang;L. Shui
中国光伏产业发展迅速，目前是唯一一个产量覆盖装机的国家。由于中国光伏产业的研发政策和配置政策不应该增加光伏产业的产量，因此本文将重点放在投资政策（补贴）对光伏产业的影响上。建立了我国光伏产业的反馈模型，并对模型的参数进行了估计。并在此基础上进行了仿真。研究结果表明，我国产业扩张的主要原因是对产业潜力的过度反应，而不是投资政策。事实上，投资政策只是在一定程度上造成价格波动和行业产能过剩。因此，中国对光伏产业投资的政策应该适当降低甚至取消，或者至少应该与部署和研发相结合。
China’s photovoltaic industry developed sharply, and now it is the only country whose production covers the installed. Since R&D policy and deployment policy of China’s PV industry should not increase its production, this paper focuses on impact of investment policy, regarded as subsidy, on the photovoltaic industry. Feedback model of China’s photovoltaic industry is built, and the parameters of the model were estimated. And then simulation is done based on the model. The results show that the expansion is mainly caused by overreaction to the potential of the industry, but not the investment policy. In fact, investment policy only causes price fluctuations and industry overcapacity to some extent. Therefore, China’s investment policy on PV industry investment should be reduced properly or even canceled, or at least it should be combined with deployment and R&D.