'Cologne Changed Everything'-The Effect of Threatening Events on the Frequency and Distribution of Intergroup Conflict in Germany
'Cologne Changed Everything'-The Effect of Threatening Events on the Frequency and Distribution of Intergroup Conflict in Germany
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DOI：
10.1093/esr/jcaa007
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Frey, Arun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Frey, Arun
在本文中，我研究了威胁事件在影响群体间冲突的发生和分布方面所发挥的作用。以德国反难民袭击为例，研究发现2015年除夕夜性侵犯导致每日暴力发生率急剧上升，远远超过国内和欧洲恐怖袭击的短暂影响。重要的是，这种效应在先前反难民敌意和极右翼支持水平较低的地区更为明显。新年事件既增加了袭击的频率，又改变了后续袭击的分布——动员以前和平的新社区对当地难民采取攻击性行为。总之，这些发现表明，威胁事件不仅影响群体间冲突的数量，而且还可能改变这种冲突最初出现的结构性条件。
In this article, I study the role that threatening events play in shaping both the occurrence and the distribution of intergroup conflict. Using the case of anti-refugee attacks in Germany, the study finds that the 2015 New Year's Eve (NYE) sexual assaults led to a dramatic surge in the daily rate of violence, far surpassing the more short-lived effect of domestic and European terrorist attacks. Importantly, this effect was more pronounced among districts with low prior levels of anti-refugee hostility and far-right support. The NYE event both increased the frequency and changed the distribution of subsequent attacks-mobilizing new, previously peaceful communities to behave aggressively towards local refugee populations. Together, these findings reveal that threatening events not only affect the amount of intergroup conflict, but may also alter the structural conditions under which such conflict emerges in the first place.