Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming
Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1628
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baker-Austin, Craig;Trinanes, Joaquin A.;Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime
人们越来越关注气候变化在推动细菌性水媒传染病方面的作用。在这里，我们说明了在波罗的海地区观察到的环境变化和最近出现的弧菌感染之间的关联，并预测未来的情况下，感染的风险与预测的变暖趋势相一致。利用几十年的长期海表温度数据集，我们发现波罗的海正在以前所未有的速度变暖。海洋表面温度趋势（1982-2010年）表明变暖模式为0.063-0.078 ℃/年（-1）（每世纪6.3-7.8 ℃;参考文献1，2），最近的峰值温度在该地区的仪器测量历史上是无与伦比的。这些变暖模式与北方欧洲意外出现的弧菌感染相吻合，其中许多聚集在波罗的海地区。病例的数量和分布与海洋表面温度的时间和空间峰值密切相关。这是第一批经验证据之一，表明人为气候变化正在通过其对居民细菌群落的影响推动温带地区弧菌病的出现，这意味着这一过程正在重塑全球范围内传染病的分布。
There is increasing concern regarding the role of climate change in driving bacterial waterborne infectious diseases. Here we illustrate associations between environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections and also forecast future scenarios of the risk of infections in correspondence with predicted warming trends. Using multidecadal long-term sea surface temperature data sets we found that the Baltic Sea is warming at an unprecedented rate. Sea surface temperature trends (1982-2010) indicate a warming pattern of 0.063-0.078 degrees C yr(-1) (6.3-7.8 degrees C per century; refs 1,2), with recent peak temperatures unequalled in the history of instrumented measurements for this region. These warming patterns have coincided with the unexpected emergence of Vibrio infections in northern Europe, many clustered around the Baltic Sea area. The number and distribution of cases correspond closely with the temporal and spatial peaks in sea surface temperatures. This is among the first empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change is driving the emergence of Vibrio disease in temperate regions through its impact on resident bacterial communities, implying that this process is reshaping the distribution of infectious diseases across global scales.