The Prediction of Business Cycle Phases: Financial Variables and International Linkages
The Prediction of Business Cycle Phases: Financial Variables and International Linkages
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经济周期阶段的预测：金融变量和国际联系
DOI：
10.1177/002795010218200110
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发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
M. Sensier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Denise R. Osborn;M. Sensier
本文讨论了增长和商业周期研究中心对英国、美国、德国、法国和意大利商业周期扩张和衰退阶段的预测的最新研究。在这些模型中，金融变量是重要的预测因素，股市在美国发挥着关键作用，但在包括英国在内的欧洲国家则不是如此。相比之下，国际联系对欧洲国家来说很重要。我们的模型显示，美国和德国经济现已走出2001年的衰退，今年第三季度，这五个国家都将处于扩张状态。
This paper discusses recent research at the Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research on the prediction of the expansion and recession phases of the business cycle for the UK, US, Germany, France and Italy. Financial variables are important predictors in these models, with the stock market playing a key role in the US but not the European countries, including the UK. In contrast, international linkages are important for the European countries. Our models suggest that the US and German economies have now emerged from the recession of 2001, and that all five countries will be in expansion during the third quarter of this year.