Period and Cohort Effects on Religious Nonaffiliation and Religious Disaffiliation: A Research Note
Period and Cohort Effects on Religious Nonaffiliation and Religious Disaffiliation: A Research Note
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时期和群体对宗教非归属和宗教脱离的影响：研究报告
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Schwadel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Schwadel
对无宗教偏好和宗教脱离报告的时期和群体效应进行了估计。结果显示，到2006年，报告没有宗教偏好的概率已上升至近0.16%。此外，越来越多的美国人在没有宗教信仰的情况下长大，这大大影响了报告无宗教信仰的人数的增加。本文使用了两种最近发展的分析技术来解开周期和队列效应的纠缠：内在估计器模型和交叉分类随机效应模型。结果显示：(1)1990年至2006年期间，报告无宗教偏好的可能性增加；(2)从40年代出生的人开始，无宗教偏好的跨队列增加；(3)与1945年至1959年出生的人相比，60年代和70年代出生的人的宗教脱离可能性（从小就有宗教偏好，但目前报告没有宗教偏好）有所下降。
Period and cohort effects on reports of no religious preference and religious disaffiliation are estimated. Results show that by 2006, the probability of reporting no religious preference had risen to almost .16. Additionally, the growing proportion of Americans raised with no religious preference substantially influences the increase in reporting no religious preference. Two recently developed analysis techniques for disentangling period and cohort effects are used: intrinsic estimator models and cross-classified, random-effects models. Results show (1) period-based increases in the probability of reporting no religious preference from 1990 to 2006, (2) across-cohort increases in no religious preference beginning with those born in the 1940s, and (3) a decline in the likelihood of religious disaffiliation (being raised with a religious preference but currently reporting no religious preference) for those born in the 1960s and 1970s compared to those born between 1945 and 1959.