Transient Dynamics of Epidemic Spreading and Its Mitigation on Large Networks
Transient Dynamics of Epidemic Spreading and Its Mitigation on Large Networks
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DOI：
10.1145/3323679.3326517
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发表时间：
2019-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Chul-Ho Lee;Srinivasarao Tenneti;Do Young Eun
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文献类型：
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作者：
Chul-Ho Lee;Srinivasarao Tenneti;Do Young Eun
在本文中，我们的目标是了解一个易感染（SI）的流行病传播过程中的一个大型网络的瞬态动力学。SI模型在文献中被很大程度上忽视了，而它自然更适合在补丁/疫苗不可用的早期对恶意软件传播进行建模，或者在大规模补丁实际上不可行的更广泛的时间尺度上进行建模。尽管如此，它的分析是简单的不平凡的，因为它的重要动态都是瞬态的，通常的稳定性/稳态分析不再适用。为此，我们开发了一个理论框架，使我们能够获得一个准确的封闭形式的近似解的原始SI动力学在任何任意的网络，它捕获的时间动态在所有的时间，比现有的近似更紧密，并通过可靠性理论提供了一个新的解释。作为其应用，我们进一步开发疫苗接种策略，或不知道已经感染的节点，以减轻未来的流行病蔓延到可能的范围内，并通过数值模拟证明其有效性。
In this paper, we aim to understand the transient dynamics of a susceptible-infected (SI) epidemic spreading process on a large network. The SI model has been largely overlooked in the literature, while it is naturally a better fit for modeling the malware propagation in early times when patches/vaccines are not available, or over a wider range of timescales when massive patching is practically infeasible. Nonetheless, its analysis is simply non-trivial, as its important dynamics are all transient and the usual stability/steady-state analysis no longer applies. To this end, we develop a theoretical framework that allows us to obtain an accurate closed-form approximate solution to the original SI dynamics on any arbitrary network, which captures the temporal dynamics over all time and is tighter than the existing approximation, and also to provide a new interpretation via reliability theory. As its applications, we further develop vaccination policies with or without knowledge of already-infected nodes, to mitigate the future epidemic spreading to the extent possible, and demonstrate their effectiveness through numerical simulations.