Integrated shale gas supply chain design and water management under uncertainty
Integrated shale gas supply chain design and water management under uncertainty
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不确定性下页岩气供应链综合设计与水资源管理
DOI：
10.1002/aic.16476
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
G. Reklaitis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Omar J. Guerra;A. Calderón;L. Papageorgiou;G. Reklaitis
页岩气资源的开发面临技术挑战，并受到市场波动的显着影响，这可能会损害新项目的开发。因此，利益相关者可以从决策支持工具中受益匪浅，这些工具将系统的复杂性与问题固有的不确定性结合起来。因此，本文提出了一种通用方法，用于评估不确定性下页岩气和水的综合供应链。首先，通过基于确定性优化模型的全局敏感性分析从候选池中识别关键参数不确定性。然后，仅考虑问题中的关键不确定参数，开发了两阶段随机模型。此外，使用完美信息的期望值和随机解指标的值来评估不确定性建模和实施随机解方法的优点。此外，还采用条件风险价值法来评估不同的风险规避水平及其对页岩气开发计划的影响。所提出的方法通过两个现实案例研究进行了说明，涉及六个和八个潜在的井场位置以及两种井场布局选项。
The development of shale gas resources is subject to technical challenges and markedly affected by volatile markets that can undermine the development of new projects. Consequently, stakeholders can greatly benefit from decision‐making support tools that integrate the complexity of the system along with the uncertainties inherent to the problem. Accordingly, a general methodology is proposed in this work for the evaluation of integrated shale gas and water supply chains under uncertainty. First, key parametric uncertainties are identified from a candidate pool via a global sensitivity analysis based on a deterministic optimization model. Then, a two‐stage stochastic model is developed considering only the key uncertain parameters in the problem. Moreover, the merits of modeling uncertainty and implementing the stochastic solution approach are evaluated using the expected value of perfect information and the value of the stochastic solution metrics. Furthermore, the conditional value‐at‐risk approach was implemented to evaluate different risk‐aversion levels and the corresponding impacts on the shale gas development plan. The proposed methodology is illustrated through two real‐world case studies involving six and eight potential well‐pad locations and two options of well‐pad layouts.
影响因子：
8.1
作者：
Kucherenko, S.;Rodriguez-Fernandez, M.;Shah, N.
通讯作者：
Shah, N.