Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years
Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years
复制标题
最近欧洲各地人为引起的大气干燥是过去 400 年来前所未有的
DOI：
10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Treydte K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Treydte K
蒸汽压赤字反映了大气中可以容纳多少水分和实际容纳多少水分之间的差异，这是一个从根本上影响蒸散，生态系统功能和植被碳吸收的因素。其空间变异性和长期趋势在自然和人类影响的气候下知之甚少，尽管对于预测未来对自然生态系统和人类社会的影响至关重要，如作物产量，野火和健康。在这里，我们结合联合收割机区域不同的重建前工业化的夏季蒸汽压赤字的变化，从欧洲最大的氧同位素网络的树木年轮纤维素与观测记录和地球系统模型模拟，包括和不包括人类强迫。我们证明，在近几十年来，在不同的欧洲目标地区的大气干燥的加剧是前所未有的工业化前的背景下，它是由于人类的影响，超过98%的概率。这一趋势的规模在西欧和中欧、阿尔卑斯山和比利牛斯山地区最大，在芬诺斯堪的纳维亚南部最小。鉴于近年来的极端干旱和复合事件，进一步的大气干燥对植被构成更大的风险，特别是在欧洲温带低地人口稠密地区。
The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under naturalversushuman-influenced climate are poorly known despite being essential for predicting future effects on natural ecosystems and human societies such as crop yield, wildfires, and health. Here we combine regionally distinct reconstructions of pre-industrial summer vapor pressure deficit variability from Europe’s largest oxygen-isotope network of tree-ring cellulose with observational records and Earth system model simulations with and without human forcing included. We demonstrate that an intensification of atmospheric drying during the recent decades across different European target regions is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context and that it is attributed to human influence with more than 98% probability. The magnitude of this trend is largest in Western and Central Europe, the Alps and Pyrenees region, and the smallest in southern Fennoscandia. In view of the extreme drought and compound events of the recent years, further atmospheric drying poses an enhanced risk to vegetation, specifically in the densely populated areas of the European temperate lowlands.