An exposure assessment for methylmercury from seafood for consumers in the United States
An exposure assessment for methylmercury from seafood for consumers in the United States
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DOI：
10.1111/0272-4332.00061
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发表时间：
2002-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Bolger, MP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carrington, CD;Bolger, MP
我们开发了一个暴露模型，将海鲜消费与美国人口以及定义为 2-5 岁儿童和 18-45 岁女性的两个亚人群血液和头发中的甲基汞（报告为汞）水平联系起来。海鲜消费最初是使用短期（三天）美国消费调查来建模的，该调查记录了每顿饭吃的鱼的数量。由于较长的暴露时间包括更多的食客和较低的每日平均摄入量，因此通过扩大分布以包括更多的食客并降低分布均值来调整消费分布以保持总人口摄入量恒定。对食客总数的估计是基于长期购买日记。罐装金枪鱼、旗鱼和鲨鱼中的汞含量基于 FDA 的调查数据。其他物种的汞含量分布基于报告的平均水平，每个物种的消费频率基于市场份额。给定平均值的形状分布基于鲨鱼、金枪鱼和旗鱼之间遇到的变化范围。这些分布与模拟相结合，该模拟估计了 360 天期间的平均每日摄入量，其中有 10,000 名模拟个体和 1,000 次不确定性迭代。然后，该模拟的结果被用作第二次模拟的输入，该模拟模拟了血液和头发中的汞含量。人群膳食摄入量与血汞之间的关系是根据一项为期 90 天的控制海鲜摄入量研究获得的数据建模的。人群中血液汞和头发汞之间的关系是根据从多个来源获得的数据建模的。生物标志物模拟采用了 2,000 名模拟个体和 1,000 次不确定性迭代。然后将这些结果与最近的国家健康和营养检查调查 (NHANES) 进行比较，该调查列出了美国不同人群的血液和头发汞含量。对于儿童和成年女性来说，模型的输出和 NHANES 结果相似，预测的汞生物标志物浓度在 NHANES 生物标志物结果的两倍或更少范围内。然而，该模型往往会低估女性的血液水平，而高估儿童的血液和头发水平。
An exposure model was developed to relate seafood consumption to levels of methylmercury (reported as mercury) in blood and hair in the U.S. population, and two subpopulations defined as children aged 2-5 and women aged 18-45. Seafood consumption was initially modeled using short-term (three-day) U.S.-consumption surveys that recorded the amount of fish eaten per meal. Since longer exposure periods include more eaters with a lower daily mean intake, the consumption distribution was adjusted by broadening the distribution to include more eaters and reducing the distribution mean to keep total population intake constant. The estimate for the total number of eaters was based on long-term purchase diaries. Levels of mercury in canned tuna, swordfish, and shark were based on FDA survey data. The distribution of mercury levels in other species was based on reported mean levels, with the frequency of consumption of each species based on market share. The shape distribution for the given mean was based on the range of variation encountered among shark, tuna, and swordfish. These distributions were integrated with a simulation that estimated average daily intake over a 360-day period, with 10,000 simulated individuals and 1,000 uncertainty iterations. The results of this simulation were then used as an input to a second simulation that modeled levels of mercury in blood and hair. The relationship between dietary intake and blood mercury in a population was modeled from data obtained from a 90-day study with controlled seafood intake. The relationship between blood and hair mercury in a population was modeled from data obtained from several sources. The biomarker simulation employed 2,000 simulated individuals and 1,000 uncertainty iterations. These results were then compared to the recent National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) that tabulated blood and hair mercury levels in a cross-section of the U.S. population. The output of the model and NHANES results were similar for both children and adult women, with predicted mercury biomarker concentrations within a factor of two or less of NHANES biomarker results. However, the model tended to underpredict blood levels for women and overpredict blood and hair levels for children.