Understanding strategic choice
Understanding strategic choice
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了解战略选择
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Cunningham
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Cunningham
是什么决定了为什么一些自决争端发展成大规模非暴力运动，另一些发展成内战，还有一些完全停留在传统政治领域？大量工作已经解决了导致暴力动员的因素，但较少关注理解争端为什么会变成暴力或非暴力，将这两种选择作为相对于传统政治的战略选择。本文通过分析各种因素如何影响传统政治战略、大规模非暴力运动和内战的成本和收益，来检验自决争端中战略选择的决定因素。我发现，与传统政治相比，内战更有可能发生，因为在传统政治中，自决团体规模更大，在邻近的州有亲戚，被排除在政治权力之外，面临经济歧视，内部分裂，要求独立，并在经济发展水平较低的国家运作。我发现，与传统政治相比，非暴力运动更有可能发生。与传统政治相比，传统政治的群体规模较小，地理集中度较低，被排除在政治权力之外，面临经济歧视，提出独立要求，并在非民主国家运作。考察自决团体可用的全套战略，使我们能够更准确地理解为什么这些团体参与大规模非暴力运动和内战。
What determines why some self-determination disputes develop into mass nonviolent campaigns, others turn into civil wars, and still others remain entirely in the realm of conventional politics? A great deal of work has addressed the factors that lead to violent mobilization, but less attention has been paid to understanding why disputes become violent or nonviolent, comparing these two as strategic choices relative to conventional politics. This article examines the determinants of strategy choice in self-determination disputes by analyzing how a variety of factors affect the costs and benefits of conventional political strategies, mass nonviolent campaign, and civil war. I find that civil war is more likely, as compared to conventional politics, when self-determination groups are larger, have kin in adjoining states, are excluded from political power, face economic discrimination, are internally fragmented, demand independence, and operate in states at lower levels of economic development. I find that nonviolent campaign is more likely, as compared to conventional politics, when groups are smaller, are less geographically concentrated, are excluded from political power, face economic discrimination, make independence demands, and operate in non-democracies. Examining the full set of strategies available to self-determination groups allows us to more accurately understand why these groups engage in mass nonviolent campaign and civil war.