Harmonization of Global Land-Use Change and Management for the Period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
Harmonization of Global Land-Use Change and Management for the Period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
复制标题
DOI：
10.5194/gmd-2019-360
复制
发表时间：
2020-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Hurtt;L. Chini;R. Sahajpal;S. Frolking;B. Bodirsky;K. Calvin;J. Doelman;J. Fisk;S. Fujimori-S.-Fuj
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Hurtt;L. Chini;R. Sahajpal;S. Frolking;B. Bodirsky;K. Calvin;J. Doelman;J. Fisk;S. Fujimori-S.-Fuj
抽象。人类的土地使用活动导致地球表面的地球化学和生物物理特性发生巨大变化，对气候和其他生态系统服务产生影响。未来，土地利用活动可能会进一步扩大和/或加强，以满足对粮食、纤维和能源日益增长的需求。作为世界气候研究计划耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 6）的一部分，国际社会正在开发下一代先进的地球系统模式（ESM），以估计人类活动（例如土地使用和化石燃料排放）对碳-气候系统的综合影响。需要根据全球环境历史数据库（HYDE）和综合评估模型（IAM）团队提供的未来（2015-2100年）的多个替代情景提供一套新的历史数据，作为这些模型的输入。在这里，我们介绍了土地利用协调2（LUH 2）项目的结果，其目标是以ESM所需的格式将更新的土地利用历史重建与新的未来预测顺利连接起来。协调战略估计的部分土地利用模式，基本的土地利用过渡，关键的农业管理信息，以及由此产生的二级土地每年，同时尽量减少历史重建结束和IAM初始条件之间的差异，并保存变化所描绘的IAM在未来。新方法建立在CMIP 5的类似努力之上，现在以更高的分辨率提供（0.25 × 0.25度），在较长的时域内（850-2100，可扩展至2300），详细信息（包括多种作物和牧草类型以及相关的管理做法），使用更多的输入数据集（包括陆地卫星遥感数据）、更新算法（木材采伐和轮垦），并通过新的诊断包进行评估。新的LUH 2产品包含的信息内容是CMIP 5中使用的数据集的50倍以上，旨在对土地使用对全球碳气候系统的综合影响进行新的和改进的估计。
Abstract. Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community is developing the next generation of advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, are required as input for these models. Here we present results from the Land-use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, with the goal to smoothly connect updated historical reconstructions of land-use with new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land-use patterns, underlying land-use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds off a similar effort from CMIP5, and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25 × 0.25 degree), over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300), with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices), using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data), updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation), and is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5, and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land-use on the global carbon-climate system.