Estimating and projecting the effect of cold waves on mortality in 209 US cities.
Estimating and projecting the effect of cold waves on mortality in 209 US cities.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envint.2016.05.008
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发表时间：
2016-09
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Schwartz JD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Y;Shi L;Zanobetti A;Schwartz JD
在气候变化的影响下，寒潮的频率、持续时间和强度预计在不久的将来会减少。然而，人们对未来与寒潮有关的死亡率缺乏了解。本研究进行了一项大规模的全国性预测，以估计1960-2050年期间美国209个城市因寒潮造成的未来死亡率。寒潮被定义为连续两天，三天或至少四天的日气温低于每个城市气温的第五个百分位数。寒潮持续期定义为寒潮持续后7天内的非寒潮天数。首先，在1962-2006年期间，在209个美国城市的1.68亿居民中，我们拟合了过度分散的泊松回归，以估计寒潮对死亡率的即时和持续影响，并测试了寒潮持续时间，寒潮强度和平均冬季温度（MWT）是否修改了相关性。然后，我们使用20个缩小尺度的气候模型预测了未来与寒潮相关的死亡率。在这里，我们表明，寒潮（包括即时和挥之不去的）与死亡风险增加有关，但死亡风险很小。这种关联在气候区域之间差异很大。其危险性随寒潮持续时间和强度的增加而增加，但随MWT的增加而降低。预计从1960年到2050年，与寒潮有关的死亡率将下降。然而，这种下降幅度也很小，可能无法抵消与高温有关的死亡人数的潜在增加。
The frequency, duration, and intensity of cold waves are expected to decrease in the near future under the changing climate. However, there is a lack of understanding on future mortality related to cold waves. The present study conducted a large-scale national projection to estimate future mortality attributable to cold waves during 1960–2050 in 209 US cities. Cold waves were defined as two, three, or at least four consecutive days with daily temperature lower than the 5th percentile of temperatures in each city. The lingering period of a cold wave was defined as the non-cold wave days within seven days following that cold wave period. First, with 168 million residents in 209 US cities during 1962–2006, we fitted over-dispersed Poisson regressions to estimate the immediate and lingering effects of cold waves on mortality and tested if the associations were modified by the duration of cold waves, the intensity of cold waves, and mean winter temperature (MWT). Then we projected future mortality related to cold waves using 20 downscaled climate models. Here we show that the cold waves (both immediate and lingering) were associated with an increased but small risk of mortality. The associations varied substantially across climate regions. The risk increased with the duration and intensity of cold waves but decreased with MWT. The projected mortality related to cold waves would decrease from 1960 to 2050. Such a decrease, however, is also small and may not be able to offset the potential increase in heat-related deaths.