Evidence and belief in regulatory decisions - Incorporating expected utility into decision modelling
Evidence and belief in regulatory decisions - Incorporating expected utility into decision modelling
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eswa.2012.01.193
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发表时间：
2012-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jiawei Li;Gareth J. Davies;G. Kendall;Emma Soane;Ruibin Bai;S. Rocks;S. Pollard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jiawei Li;Gareth J. Davies;G. Kendall;Emma Soane;Ruibin Bai;S. Rocks;S. Pollard
最近在风险评估和管理方面的变化使人们更加重视个人之间和群体内部的关系，以便为决策提供信息。在本文中，我们为期望效用决策方法提供了理论基础。该方法是使用已建立的证据支持逻辑(特斯拉™)提出的，将预期的效用整合到形成群体决策中。通过处理疾病暴发期间积累的动物身体的备选方案的假设决策背景，描述和说明了理由和基础。这种方法构成了探索基于风险的决策的丰富性的基础，并代表了个人对他们可能为支持假设而提出的证据的充分性的信念。
Recent changes in the assessment and management of risks has had the effect that greater importance has been placed on relationships between individuals and within groups to inform decision making. In this paper, we provide the theoretical underpinning for an expected utility approach to decision-making. The approach, which is presented using established evidence support logic (TESLA™), integrating the expected utilities in the forming of group decisions. The rationale and basis are described and illustrated through a hypothetical decision context of options for the disposal of animal carcasses that accumulate during disease outbreaks. The approach forms the basis for exploring the richness of risk-based decisions, and representing individual beliefs about the sufficiency of evidence they may advance in support of hypotheses.