Social network-based distancing strategies to flatten the COVID-19 curve in a post-lockdown world
Social network-based distancing strategies to flatten the COVID-19 curve in a post-lockdown world
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DOI：
10.1038/s41562-020-0898-6
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发表时间：
2020-06-04
影响因子：
29.9
通讯作者：
Mills, Melinda C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Block, Per;Hoffman, Marion;Mills, Melinda C.
Block等人融合了流行病学和网络科学的模型，展示了如何通过寻求相似性、加强社区和在气泡中重复互动来战略性地修改接触，从而缓解封锁和减缓感染传播。社交距离和隔离已被广泛引入以应对COVID-19大流行。完全或接近完全封锁的不良社会、心理和经济后果要求制定更温和的减少接触政策。采用社交网络的方法，我们评估了三个距离策略的有效性，旨在保持曲线平坦，并在封锁后的世界援助合规。这些是：将互动限制在几个重复的联系人上，类似于形成社交泡沫;在联系人之间寻找相似性;通过三元策略加强社区。我们模拟随机感染曲线，将感染模型，理想型社会网络模型和统计关系事件模型的核心元素。我们证明，基于社交网络的战略性减少接触，大大提高了社交距离措施的有效性，同时保持较低的风险。我们为有效的社交距离提供了科学证据，可以应用于公共卫生信息，并可以减轻社交孤立的负面影响。
Fusing models from epidemiology and network science, Block et al. show how to ease lockdown and slow infection spread by strategic modification of contact through seeking similarity, strengthening communities and repeating interaction in bubbles.Social distancing and isolation have been widely introduced to counter the COVID-19 pandemic. Adverse social, psychological and economic consequences of a complete or near-complete lockdown demand the development of more moderate contact-reduction policies. Adopting a social network approach, we evaluate the effectiveness of three distancing strategies designed to keep the curve flat and aid compliance in a post-lockdown world. These are: limiting interaction to a few repeated contacts akin to forming social bubbles; seeking similarity across contacts; and strengthening communities via triadic strategies. We simulate stochastic infection curves incorporating core elements from infection models, ideal-type social network models and statistical relational event models. We demonstrate that a strategic social network-based reduction of contact strongly enhances the effectiveness of social distancing measures while keeping risks lower. We provide scientific evidence for effective social distancing that can be applied in public health messaging and that can mitigate negative consequences of social isolation.