Reconciling disparate twentieth-century Indo-Pacific ocean temperature trends in the instrumental record
Reconciling disparate twentieth-century Indo-Pacific ocean temperature trends in the instrumental record
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1591
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发表时间：
2012-09-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Newman, Matthew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Solomon, Amy;Newman, Matthew
从目前的重建确定的20世纪热带印度洋-太平洋海表温度趋势之间存在很大的差异。这些差异妨碍了对用于预测未来气候变化的气候模型进行明确的核实和确认。在这里，我们证明了一个更一致的和强大的趋势，所有的重建被发现通过过滤每个数据集，以消除厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO），这不是由一个单一的指数时间序列，而是由一个不断发展的动力学过程。也就是说，这种差异似乎主要是由于每次重建对厄尔尼诺/南方涛动变率的估计不同。强烈的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动残差趋势模式表明，自1900年以来，赤道太平洋温度梯度有所加强，这是由于暖池出现系统性变暖趋势，而冷舌出现弱冷却。同样，ENSO残余海平面气压趋势表明，同期赤道步行者环流没有减弱。此外，没有一个不同的估计后1900年总赤道东太平洋海表温度的趋势是大于可以产生的统计平稳，随机强迫经验模型，再现ENSO演变在每个重建。
Large discrepancies exist between twentieth-century tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature trends determined from present reconstructions. These discrepancies prevent an unambiguous verification and validation of climate models used for projections of future climate change. Here we demonstrate that a more consistent and robust trend among all the reconstructions is found by filtering each data set to remove El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is represented not by a single-index time series but rather by an evolving dynamical process. That is, the discrepancies seem to be largely the result of different estimates of ENSO variability in each reconstruction. The robust ENSO-residual trend pattern represents a strengthening of the equatorial Pacific temperature gradient since 1900, owing to a systematic warming trend in the warm pool and weak cooling in the cold tongue. Similarly, the ENSO-residual trend in sea-level pressure represents no weakening of the equatorial Walker circulation over the same period. Additionally, none of the disparate estimates of post-1900 total eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature trends are larger than can be generated by statistically stationary, stochastically forced empirical models that reproduce ENSO evolution in each reconstruction.