Predictability of US West Coast Ocean Temperatures is not solely due to ENSO
Predictability of US West Coast Ocean Temperatures is not solely due to ENSO
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-019-47400-4
复制
发表时间：
2019-07-29
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Miller, Arthur J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Capotondi, Antonietta;Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.;Miller, Arthur J.
2013/2014年冬季至2014/15年东北太平洋极端持续变暖的原因尚不完全清楚。虽然全球变暖可能有所贡献，但自然影响也可能发挥了作用。厄尔尼诺事件通常与美国西海岸 (USWC) 的异常温暖状况有关。然而，2014 年热带太平洋海面温度 (SST) 异常普遍较弱，令人质疑其在 USWC 变暖中的作用。在这项研究中，我们确定了热带太平洋“敏感模式”，该模式可以最佳地迫使美国西部气候稍后变暖。我们发现这种敏感性模式与通常与ENSO相关的成熟海温异常模式并不相符，而是包含与ENSO海温前兆和赤道中/西太平洋海温异常相关的元素。造成美国西部气候大幅变暖的厄尔尼诺事件，无论其幅度如何，都会影响敏感性模式，并以北太平洋大气和海洋场的明显演变为特征。然而，即使在正确位置出现微弱的热带海温异常，并且不一定与 ENSO 相关，也可以显着影响 USWC 条件并提高其可预测性。
The causes of the extreme and persistent warming in the Northeast Pacific from the winter of 2013/14 to that of 2014/15 are still not fully understood. While global warming may have contributed, natural influences may also have played a role. El Nino events are often implicated in anomalously warm conditions along the US West Coast (USWC). However, the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were generally weak during 2014, calling into question their role in the USWC warming. In this study, we identify tropical Pacific "sensitivity patterns" that optimally force USWC warming at a later time. We find that such sensitivity patterns do not coincide with the mature SST anomaly patterns usually associated with ENSO, but instead include elements associated with ENSO SST precursors and SST anomalies in the central/western equatorial Pacific. El Nino events that produce large USWC warming, irrespective of their magnitude, do project on the sensitivity pattern and are characterized by a distinct evolution of the North Pacific atmospheric and oceanic fields. However, even weak tropical SST anomalies in the right location, and not necessarily associated with ENSO, can significantly influence USWC conditions and enhance their predictability.