Offending trajectories in a New Zealand birth cohort
Offending trajectories in a New Zealand birth cohort
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1745-9125.2000.tb00898.x
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发表时间：
2000-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Nagin, DS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fergusson, DM;Horwood, LJ;Nagin, DS
在本文中，我们开发了一种意图类建模方法来检查违规轨迹的变化。这个模型被应用到测试的预测的轨迹理论开发的Moffitt和帕特森的犯罪历史数据可以分为早发/生命过程中持续的犯罪和晚发/发病有限的犯罪轨迹，这些轨迹组与不同的病因因素。该方法被应用到收集的数据在900多名新西兰儿童从出生到18岁的纵向研究过程中。分析确定了四个轨迹组，这些轨迹组对应于非罪犯，中度风险罪犯，青少年发病罪犯和慢性罪犯。青少年的发病和慢性罪犯群体是类似的轨迹分组预测的莫菲特/帕特森理论。社会，家庭，童年和同龄人的因素与这些犯罪轨迹的检查建议存在一系列共同的病因学因素有关的家庭功能和早期调整的轨迹组之间的歧视。然而，也存在犯罪的具体病因学的证据，其中形成偏差的同龄人从属关系的年轻人从中等风险的背景，导致在青春期犯罪的快速发作。
In this paper, we develop a Intent class modeling method to examine variation in offending trajectories. This model is applied to test the predictions of the trajectory theories developed by Moffitt and Patterson that offending history data can be classified into early onset/life-course-persistent offending and late onset/adolescent-limited offending trajectories, with these trajectory groups being related to different etiological factors. The approach was applied to data gathered over the course of a longitudinal study of more than 900 New Zealand children studied from birth until the age of 18. The analysis identified four trajectory groups, with these trajectory groups corresponding to nonoffenders, moderate risk offenders, adolescent onset offenders, and chronic offenders. The adolescent onset and chronic offender groups were similar to the trajectory groupings predicted by the Moffitt/Patterson theories. Examination of social, family, childhood, and peer factors associated with these offending trajectories suggested the presence of a series of common etiological factors relating to family functioning and early adjustment that discriminated between the trajectory groups. However, evidence of trajectory-specific etiology also existed in which the formation of deviant peer affiliations for young people from moderate risk backgrounds led to the rapid onset of offending in adolescence.