The periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in Venezuela
The periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in Venezuela
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DOI：
10.1016/j.actatropica.2013.10.007
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Rafael Leon, Jose
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Grillet, Maria-Eugenia;El Souki, Mayida;Rafael Leon, Jose
我们研究了委内瑞拉三个疟疾流行区(1990-2010年)间日疟和恶性疟发病的周期性。特别是，我们确定了疾病流行是否与当地气候变异性和区域气候异常(如厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO))有关。疟疾的周期性在每个研究区域都表现出独特的特征。确定了重要的多年周期，周期为2至约6年。疟疾病例的年际变化与SSTs(ENSO)的年际变化是一致的，主要是在3-6年的时间尺度上。此外，在厄尔尼诺事件发生大约一年后，疟疾病例加剧，这种模式突出了气候年际变化在流行病模式中的作用。降雨影响了ENSO对当地疟疾的影响。特别是，季节最后阶段的降雨在疟原虫的时间动态中起到了关键作用。疟疾与气候的关系是复杂和短暂的，其强度因区域和物种而异。通过确定疟疾的时间周期，我们在预测委内瑞拉高危年份方面迈出了第一步。我们的发现强调了分析高分辨率时空数据以更好地了解疟疾传播动态的重要性。(C)2013爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
We investigated the periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum incidence in time-series of malaria data (1990-2010) from three endemic regions in Venezuela. In particular, we determined whether disease epidemics were related to local climate variability and regional climate anomalies such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Malaria periodicity was found to exhibit unique features in each studied region. Significant multi-annual cycles of 2- to about 6-year periods were identified. The inter-annual variability of malaria cases was coherent with that of SSTs (ENSO), mainly at temporal scales within the 3-6 year periods. Additionally, malaria cases were intensified approximately 1 year after an El Nino event, a pattern that highlights the role of climate inter-annual variability in the epidemic patterns. Rainfall mediated the effect of ENSO on malaria locally. Particularly, rains from the last phase of the season had a critical role in the temporal dynamics of Plasmodium. The malaria-climate relationship was complex and transient, varying in strength with the region and species. By identifying temporal cycles of malaria we have made a first step in predicting high-risk years in Venezuela. Our findings emphasize the importance of analyzing high-resolution spatial-temporal data to better understand malaria transmission dynamics. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.