Choices, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics
Choices, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics
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DOI：
10.1016/s0167-6296(02)00103-0
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发表时间：
2003-05-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Auld, MC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Auld, MC
讨论了流行病中危险行为的动态模型。关键的结果是，对疫情未来的悲观预期导致了当前更多的危险行为。平衡流行病的数值模拟表明，这种影响可以在流行病的早期阶段加速疾病的传播，而预防性疫苗等政策干预措施的效果可能取决于是否预期到这种干预措施。(C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.版权所有
A dynamic model of risky behavior in the midst of an epidemic is discussed. The key result is that pessimistic expectations over the future of the epidemic induce more current risky behavior. Numerical simulation of equilibrium epidemics shows that this effect can accelerate spread of the disease in an epidemic's early stages and that the effect of policy interventions, such as preventative vaccines, may depend on whether the intervention was anticipated. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.