Modelling trade and other economic interactions between countries in baseline projections-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.21642/jgea.050107af

发表时间：

2020-06

期刊：

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其他

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作者：

E. Bekkers;A. Antimiani;Caitlyn Carrico;Dorothee Flaig;L. Fontagné;J. Fouré;J. François;K. Itakura;Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova;W. Powers;B. Saveyn;Robert R. Teh;F. V. Tongeren;M. Tsigas

本文用递归动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型研究了国家间贸易和其他经济互动在基线预测构建过程中的建模方式。对贸易弹性的大小、贸易平衡的建模方式(宏观经济关闭)、贸易增长和能源价格进行了模拟。审议的其他专题包括零点模型、新技术和新类型贸易政策(数据贸易和数字化)的模型、未来贸易政策的逐步纳入以及移民和汇款。我们的结论是，对于嵌套阿明顿优惠的使用有相对的共识，而不同的学者对贸易平衡的建模却非常不同。大多数模型都没有考虑基线贸易增长和历史贸易增长之间的差异，尽管这种差异具有很高的相关性。在建模和数据收集方面的研究工作应用于更好地涵盖经常账户的其他项目(资本收入、汇款)，纳入外债净额和资产头寸，根据历史模式预测贸易增长，并使用更好的工具来模拟快速增长的数字经济。

This paper examines the way trade and other economic interactions between countries are modelled in the construction of baseline projections with recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Simulations are conducted on the size of trade elasticities, the way the trade balance is modelled (macroeconomic closure), trade growth, and energy prices. Other topics scrutinized are the modelling of zeros, modelling of new technologies and new types of trade policies (trade in data and digitalization), phasing in of future trade policies, and migration and remittances. We conclude that there is relative consensus about the use of nested Armington preferences, whereas different scholars model the trade balance very differently. The discrepancy between baseline trade growth and historical trade growth is not considered in most models though highly relevant. Research efforts, both in terms of modelling and data collection, should be allocated to a better coverage of other items on the current account (capital income, remittances) and the inclusion of net foreign debt and asset positions, projecting trade growth based on historical patterns, and better tools to model the rapidly growing digital economy.

Modelling trade and other economic interactions between countries in baseline projections

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