Climate Shocks, Political Institutions, and Nomadic Invasions in Early Modern East Asia
Climate Shocks, Political Institutions, and Nomadic Invasions in Early Modern East Asia
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近代早期东亚的气候冲击、政治制度和游牧入侵
DOI：
10.1177/0022002719889665
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Weiwen Yin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Weiwen Yin
虽然大量文献认为负面的气候冲击可能引发冲突，但最近的研究结果表明，温和的气候条件会导致战争。本文提出了一个条件理论，将政治制度作为调节变量。我认为，在负面气候冲击的影响下，与分散社会相比，集中社会可以动员更多的资源用于战争。因此，前者更有可能诉诸有组织的掠夺，以解决有害的气候冲击造成的稀缺问题。此外，当气候条件温和时，中央集权社会几乎没有掠夺的动机，因为他们可以通过中央集权机构定期征税。比较中央集权程度较高的满洲人和中央集权程度较低的蒙古人的冲突行为，可以作为一种实证检验。我发现，温度是负相关的可能性，满洲人入侵后，他们拥抱中央集权，但有积极的影响，蒙古人入侵的可能性。
While a large literature argues negative climate shocks can trigger conflicts, recent findings suggest moderate climatic conditions lead to war. This article proposes a conditional theory by incorporating political institution as a moderating variable. I argue that, under the impact of negative climate shocks, centralized societies can mobilize more resources for war, compared to decentralized societies. Thus, the former is more likely to resort to well-organized plundering to address the scarcity problem caused by detrimental climate shocks. Besides, centralized societies have little incentive to plunder when the climatic conditions are moderate, as they can collect taxes regularly through centralized institutions. A comparison between the more centralized Manchurian and the less centralized Mongols on their conflictual behavior serves as an empirical test. I find that temperature was negatively associated with the probability of Manchurian invasion after they embraced centralization but had a positive effect on the likelihood of Mongol invasion.