Transmission dynamic modelling of the impact of human papillomavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom
Transmission dynamic modelling of the impact of human papillomavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.vaccine.2009.09.125
复制
发表时间：
2010-05-28
期刊：
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Edmunds, William John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Choi, Yoon Hong;Jit, Mark;Edmunds, William John
许多国家正在考虑接种人类乳头瘤病毒（HPV）疫苗。然而，由于HPV感染的流行、性伴侣的模式、宫颈肿瘤的进展、筛查的准确性以及传染性和免疫的持续时间的不确定性，疫苗接种的长期影响难以预测。人类乳头瘤病毒（HPV）传播的动态模型被开发用来描述宫颈肿瘤、宫颈癌（鳞状细胞癌和腺癌）和肛门生殖器疣的感染、传播和发展。使用不同的假设组合，创建了9900个场景。然后将每种情景与流行病学数据和用于预测疫苗接种影响的最佳拟合情景进行拟合。结果表明，如果疫苗保护平均持续20年，为12岁女孩接种80%的疫苗覆盖率，在持续接种疫苗规划60年后，将使宫颈癌发病率降低38-82%，使肛门生殖器疣发病率降低44-100%。为男孩接种疫苗的边际效益取决于为女孩接种疫苗所达到的保护程度。2009爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Many countries are considering vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV). However, the long-term impact of vaccination is difficult to predict due to uncertainty about the prevalence of HPV infection, pattern of sexual partnerships, progression of cervical neoplasias, accuracy of screening as well as the duration of infectiousness and immunity. Dynamic models of human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission were developed to describe the infection spread and development of cervical neoplasia, cervical cancer (squamous cell and adenocarcinoma) and anogenital warts. Using different combinations of assumptions, 9900 scenarios were created. Each scenario was then fitted to epidemiological data and the best-fitting scenarios used to predict the impact of vaccination. Results suggest that vaccinating 12-year-old girls at 80% coverage will result in a 38-82% reduction in cervical cancer incidence and 44-100% reduction in anogenital warts incidence after 60 years of an ongoing vaccination programme if vaccine protection lasts 20 years on average. The marginal benefit of vaccinating boys depends on the degree of protection achieved by vaccinating girls. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.