Consensus, Certainty, and Catastrophe: Discourse, Governance, and Ocean Iron Fertilization
Consensus, Certainty, and Catastrophe: Discourse, Governance, and Ocean Iron Fertilization
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共识、确定性和灾难：话语、治理和海洋铁肥化
DOI：
10.1162/glep_a_00404
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Kemi Fuentes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kemi Fuentes
几十年来，各国、跨国科学家网络、企业参与者和气候变化制度机构都知道，铁矿石倾倒在海洋中会刺激浮游生物的生长。在过去的20年里，关于适当行为的规范性分歧塑造了这一现象的国际治理。在2007年之前，公司游说政府将海洋视为碳汇，并允许倾倒铁的公司在国际市场上出售碳信用额。然而，2007年后，一个由海洋学家和倡导者组成的跨国联盟反对这一议程，将其与一个新兴的反地球工程话语联系起来。对他们的努力至关重要的是他们对不确定性的解释：对反对者来说，科学上的不确定性意味着铁倾销可能造成破坏性后果，因此最好以极其谨慎的态度处理这一问题。这一规范性方法最终塑造了治理，因为倡导者成功地利用这一方法游说海洋治理机构，防止为海洋肥化发放碳信用额。由于这些对确定性的主观理解影响了全球海洋治理，本文将国际行为解释为规范变化的结果。
States, transnational networks of scientists, corporate actors, and institutions in the climate change regime have known for decades that iron ore, when dumped in the ocean, can stimulate the growth of plankton. Over the past twenty years, normative disagreements about appropriate behavior have shaped international governance of the phenomenon. Prior to 2007, firms lobbied governments to treat the oceans as a carbon sink and to allow corporations that dumped iron to sell carbon credits on the international market. However, after 2007 a transnational coalition of oceanographers and advocates opposed this agenda by linking it to an emergent antigeoengineering discourse. Crucial to their efforts was their interpretation of uncertainty: for opponents, scientific uncertainty implied possibly devastating consequences of iron dumping, which was thus best addressed with extreme caution. This normative approach ultimately shaped governance, since advocates successfully used it to lobby institutions in ocean governance to prevent carbon credits from being issued for ocean fertilization. Since these subjective understandings of certainty influenced global ocean governance, this article explains international behavior as a consequence of changing norms.