Recent slowdown of tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability
Recent slowdown of tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability
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DOI：
10.1002/2015gl063608
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发表时间：
2015-04-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Kimoto, Masahide
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kamae, Youichi;Shiogama, Hideo;Kimoto, Masahide
尽管耦合大气-海洋环流模式（AOGCMs）预测的持续变暖，但在1997-2011年期间，热带地区对流层上层温度（T-TUT）的观测结果显示变暖速率减缓。这种观测模式的不一致是基于AOGCM的未来气候预测可靠性的一个根本问题。为了研究减速，我们进行了合奏历史模拟，大气环流模式（AGCM）强迫观测到的海表温度有和没有人为影响。历史AGCM运行再现了在多个观测中发现的中太平洋（CP）的T-TUT变化，而多AOGCM平均值则没有。最近的热带太平洋冷却，这被认为是自然变率，有助于在CP和T-TUT增加的结果放缓的静音趋势。这项研究的结果表明，在模拟最近的对流层上部变暖间断的困难并不表明低可靠性的AOGCM为基础的未来气候预测。
Observed upper tropospheric temperature over the tropics (T-TUT) shows a slowdown in warming rate during 1997-2011 despite the continuous warming projected by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). This observation-model discord is an underlying issue regarding the reliability of future climate projections based on AOGCMs. To investigate the slowdown, we conducted ensemble historical simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by observed sea surface temperature both with and without anthropogenic influences. The historical AGCM run reproduced a muted T-TUT change over the central Pacific (CP) found in multiple observations, while the multi-AOGCM mean did not. Recent tropical Pacific cooling, which is considered natural variability, contributes to the muted trend over the CP and the resultant slowdown of T-TUT increase. The results of this study suggest that difficulties in simulating the recent upper tropospheric warming hiatus do not indicate low reliability of AOGCM-based future climate projections.