Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation
Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2005jd006290
复制
发表时间：
2006-03-15
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Vazquez-Aguirre, JL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alexander, LV;Zhang, X;Vazquez-Aguirre, JL
根据每日气温和降水数据计算并分析了一套气候变化指数，主要关注极端事件。通过为每个指数设定精确公式并使用专门设计的软件，不同国家所做的分析得以无缝结合。这使得利用在数据稀缺地区举办的多次研讨会的结果以及世界各地众多科学家提供的高质量站点数据，能够呈现出关于极端气温和降水指数趋势的最新且全面的全球图景。对1951 - 2003年期间的季节性和年度指数进行了网格化处理。计算了网格化区域的趋势，并对其统计显著性进行了检验。结果显示，与气候变暖相关的极端气温发生了广泛且显著的变化，尤其是那些由日最低气温得出的指数。全球超过70%的抽样陆地面积显示，寒冷夜晚的年出现次数显著减少，温暖夜晚的年出现次数显著增加。一些地区这些指数的变化超过了一倍。这意味着全球日最低气温分布发生了正向偏移。日最高气温指数显示出类似的变化，但幅度较小。降水变化显示出广泛且显著的增加，但与气温变化相比，其空间一致性要差得多。分析了大约200个气温站和600个降水站的指数的概率分布，这些站点拥有1901 - 2003年近乎完整的数据，覆盖了北半球中纬度的大片区域（降水数据还包括澳大利亚部分地区），分析时段为1901 - 1950年、1951 - 1978年和1979 - 2003年。结果表明，整个20世纪气温显著变暖。在最近两个时段之间以及与最低气温相关的指数中，气温指数分布的差异尤为明显。对有季节性时间序列的指数进行分析表明，所有季节都出现了这些变化，尽管9月至11月期间通常最不明显。降水指数显示出整个20世纪趋于更湿润的状况。
A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up-to-date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data-sparse regions and high-quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951-2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with near-complete data for 1901-2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901-1950, 1951-1978 and 1979-2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.