The diversity of population responses to environmental change
The diversity of population responses to environmental change
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DOI：
10.1111/ele.13195
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发表时间：
2019-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Gaillard, Jean-Michel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Colchero, Fernando;Jones, Owen R.;Gaillard, Jean-Michel
当前的物种灭绝和气候变化危机迫使我们更加准确地预测人口动态。尽管预测是基于先进的年龄结构人口理论，但两个关键问题仍未得到充分探讨。具体来说，人口比率中的年龄依赖性以及生存和繁殖力之间的逐年相互作用如何影响随机人口增长率。我们使用推理、模拟和数学推导来探索环境扰动如何决定具有不同年龄特定人口比率的人口的人口增长率，以及年龄何时减少到各个阶段。我们发现基于阶段和年龄的模型可以产生明显不同的随机人口增长率。当存在生存-生育-权衡时，这种差异最为明显，这减少了人口增长率的差异。最后，不同年龄人口增长率的人口随机增长率的期望值和方差可能会出现分歧，以至于一些人口可能会繁荣，而另一些人口将不可避免地灭绝。
The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.