Twenty-first century approaches to ancient problems: Climate and society
Twenty-first century approaches to ancient problems: Climate and society
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1616188113
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发表时间：
2016-12-20
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Kohler, Timothy A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Guedes, Jade A. d'Alpoim;Crabtree, Stefani A.;Kohler, Timothy A.
通过记录人类如何适应环境的变化，这些变化往往比仪器记录中所经历的要大得多，考古学为我们提供了唯一的深时间实验室，以突出人类在哪些情况下成功地或未能找到适应气候变化的解决方案，而不仅仅是在几代人的时间里，而是在很长的时间里。然而，由于现有数据集的空间和时间分辨率较低，以及未能模拟气候变化对人类社会重要的当地资源的影响，气候介导的环境变化与人类社会变化之间的模式一直模糊不清。在本文中，我们回顾了计算建模的最新进展，结合改进的数据，解决了这些限制。这些进展包括网络分析、生态位和物种分布建模以及基于代理的建模。这些研究证明了深度时间模型在校准我们对气候如何影响当今和未来社会的理解方面的效用。
By documenting how humans adapted to changes in their environment that are often much greater than those experienced in the instrumental record, archaeology provides our only deep-time laboratory for highlighting the circumstances under which humans managed or failed to find to adaptive solutions to changing climate, not just over a few generations but over the longue duree. Patterning between climate-mediated environmental change and change in human societies has, however, been murky because of low spatial and temporal resolution in available datasets, and because of failure to model the effects of climate change on local resources important to human societies. In this paper we review recent advances in computational modeling that, in conjunction with improving data, address these limitations. These advances include network analysis, niche and species distribution modeling, and agent-based modeling. These studies demonstrate the utility of deep-time modeling for calibrating our understanding of how climate is influencing societies today and may in the future.