Statistical Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Data in Baghdad City

Statistical Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Data in Baghdad City
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巴格达市极端降雨数据统计分析

DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Zinah Zaid Ali Al
Zinah Zaid Ali Al
中科院分区：
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文献类型：
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作者：
Tasnim H. K. Al;Zinah Zaid Ali Al

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研究极端降水在伊拉克非常重要。特别是近十年来，随着气候变化，极端降水呈增加趋势。其中一些对该国许多地区的社会和经济环境造成了灾难性后果。本文对降雨资料进行了统计分析。对巴格达气象站127年（1887-2013年）逐月记录的年最大降雨量进行了分析。选择适合数据的三个分布是Gumbel分布、fracimchet分布和广义极值分布（GEV）。采用最大似然法分析，结果表明，GEV分布最优，其次为fr<s:1>切特分布。
Studying extreme precipitation is very important in Iraq. In particular, the last decade witnessed an increasing trend in extreme precipitation as the climate change. Some of which caused a disastrous consequences on social and economic environment in many parts of the country. In this paper a statistical analysis of rainfall data is performed. Annual maximum rainfall data obtained from monthly records for a period of 127 years (1887-2013 inclusive) at Baghdad metrology station have been analyzed. The three distributions chosen to fit the data were Gumbel, Fréchet and the generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Using the maximum likelihood method, results showed that the GEV distribution was the best followed by Fréchet distribution.