Climate change and water resources in Britain
Climate change and water resources in Britain
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DOI：
10.1023/a:1005339412565
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发表时间：
1998-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Arnell, NW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnell, NW
本文探讨了气候变化对英国水资源使用和管理的潜在影响。它是基于对河流流量、地下水补给和河流水质变化模拟的审查。这些模拟表明，在可行的气候变化情景下，英国南部的年、冬、夏季径流量将减少，地下水补给量将减少，水质（以硝酸盐浓度和溶解氧含量为特征）将恶化。在英国北方，河流流量可能全年都在增加，特别是在冬季。气候变化可能会导致对水的需求增加，而这一增长是由于非气候原因而预测的，主要是由于花园浇水的使用增加。对水资源基础的这些增加的压力将不仅影响到供水的可靠性，而且影响到航行、水生生态系统、娱乐和发电，并将对水质管理产生影响。洪水风险可能会增加，这意味着防洪标准会降低。本文件讨论了各种适应办法。
This paper explores the potential implications of climate change for the use and management of water resources in Britain. It is based on a review of simulations of changes in river hows, groundwater recharge and river water quality. These simulations imply, under feasible climate change scenarios, that annual, winter and summer runoff will decrease in southern Britain, groundwater recharge will be reduced and that water quality - as characterised by nitrate concentrations and dissolved oxygen contents - will deteriorate. In northern Britain, river flows are likely to increase throughout the year, particularly in winter. Climate change may lead to increased demands for water, over and above that increase which is forecast for non-climatic reasons, primarily due to increased use for garden watering. These increased pressures on the water resource base will impact not only upon the reliability of water supplies, but also upon navigation, aquatic ecosystems, recreation and power generation, and will have implications for water quality management. Flood risk is likely to increase, implying a reduction in standards of flood protection. The paper discusses adaptation options.