Development Futures in the Context of Climate Change: Challenging the Present and Learning from the Past
Development Futures in the Context of Climate Change: Challenging the Present and Learning from the Past
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-7679.2009.00468.x
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发表时间：
2009-11-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Brown, Katrina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brooks, Nick;Grist, Natasha;Brown, Katrina
气候变化对主流发展模式提出了挑战，其现代化、经济增长和全球化概念将环境视为一种外部性，在很大程度上忽视了气候的可变性。本文探讨了挑战的程度，利用考古证据表明，适应严重的气候变化可能涉及人类社会比目前设想的更彻底的变化。此外，短期适应可能导致长期适应不良，增加对气候冲击的脆弱性。文章认为，发展迫切需要将重点从当前的增长和收益最大化模式转向鼓励弹性和风险分散的替代模式。
Climate change poses a challenge to the dominant development paradigm with its concepts of modernisation, economic growth and globalisation which treat the environment as an externality and largely ignore climate variability. This article explores the extent of the challenge, drawing on archaeological evidence showing that adaptation to severe climate change can involve much more radical changes in human societies than are currently envisaged. Furthermore, short-term adaptation can result in long-term maladaptation, increasing vulnerability to climate shocks. The article argues that development urgently needs to shift its focus away from prevailing growth and yield-maximisation models towards alternatives encouraging resilience and risk-spreading.