The Middle-Income Trap from the Viewpoint of Trade Structures: Are the Geese Trapped or Still Flying?
The Middle-Income Trap from the Viewpoint of Trade Structures: Are the Geese Trapped or Still Flying?
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从贸易结构看中等收入陷阱：大雁是被困还是仍在飞翔？
DOI：
10.1142/s1793993315500179
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Satoru Kumagai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
橋本圭司;橋本圭司;橋本圭司・林朱雲;Keiji Hashimoto(橋本圭司);Keiji Hashimoto(橋本圭司);Keiji Hashimoto;Satoru Kumagai
本文试图从国际贸易的角度来解释中等收入陷阱的概念。我们分别对受困国家和非受困国家不同类型货物的收入水平与净出口比率之间的关系进行了实证分析。我们的发现表明，产业升级似乎与非受困国家的飞雁(FG)模型所描述的完全一样。受困国家往往依赖初级商品的出口，工业化似乎是由与加工产品的前向联系推动的。
In this paper we try to explain the concept of middle-income trap from the viewpoint of international trade. We conduct an empirical analysis on the relationship between income levels and net export ratios for different types of goods for trapped and non-trapped countries separately. Our findings indicate that industrial upgrading appears to occur exactly as depicted by the flying-geese (FG) model for non-trapped countries. Trapped countries tend to depend on the export of primary commodities and industrialization appears to be driven by forward linkages to processed goods.