Individual prediction of ulcer recurrence after vagotomy for chronic duodenal ulcer by discriminant analysis
Individual prediction of ulcer recurrence after vagotomy for chronic duodenal ulcer by discriminant analysis
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判别分析对慢性十二指肠溃疡迷走神经切断术后溃疡复发的个体预测
DOI：
10.1016/0016-5085(83)90331-1
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发表时间：
1983
期刊：
影响因子：
29.4
通讯作者：
S. Lam
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Koo;S. Lam
为了寻找一种区分慢性十二指肠溃疡术后溃疡复发和非溃疡复发患者的方法，我们通过逐步判别分析，评估了74例接受近端胃迷走神经切断术或截尾迷走神经切断术并引流的患者的临床、溃疡和胃酸分泌特征。使用衍生的判别函数，我们将溃疡复发的患者与未复发的患者分开，敏感性为71.4%（14例患者中的10例），阳性预测值为76.9%（13例患者中的10例），诊断效率为90.5%（74例患者中的67例）。酸相关因素是最重要的，占判别函数总方差的约60%，其中临床和溃疡特征分别贡献约30%和10%。该判别函数应用于另外25例患者。初步结果表明，判别分析可能比单因素分析更准确地估计溃疡复发的概率。在需要手术的十二指肠溃疡患者中，判别分析可以潜在地用于选择最合适的手术程序。
In a search for a way to discriminate between patients who develop ulcer recurrence after surgery for chronic duodenal ulcer and those who do not, we evaluated, by a stepwise discriminant analysis, the clinical, ulcer, and acid secretory features of 74 patients who had either proximal gastric vagotomy or truncal vagotomy with drainage. Using the derived discriminant function, we separated patients who had ulcer recurrence from those who did not with a sensitivity of 71.4% (10 of 14 patients), a positive predictive value of 76.9% (10 of 13 patients), and a diagnostic efficiency of 90.5% (67 of 74 patients). Acid-related factors were found to be the most important, accounting for ~60% of the total variance in the discriminant function, with clinical and ulcer features contributing ~30% and 10%, respectively. The discriminant function was applied prospectively to 25 additional patients. The preliminary results suggest that discriminant analysis may be more accurate than univariate analysis in estimating the probability of ulcer recurrence. In a duodenal ulcer patient who requires surgery, discriminant analysis can potentially be used to select the most appropriate operative procedure.