Hydrologic Evaluation on the AGCM20 Output Using Observed River Discharge Data
Hydrologic Evaluation on the AGCM20 Output Using Observed River Discharge Data
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DOI：
10.3178/hrl.4.35
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Sunmin Kim;Y. Tachikawa;E. Nakakita;K. Takara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sunmin Kim;Y. Tachikawa;E. Nakakita;K. Takara
使用分布式水文模型和观测到的河流流量数据，从水文角度评估了超高分辨率大气模型（AGCM20）的受控模拟输出。当前气候条件下的 AGCM20 输出在使用合理且准备充分的水文模型转换为河流流量信息时应能够提供当前河流流量模式。在本次评估中，针对日本利根河流域 60 km2 至 8,772 km2 的不同流域规模构建了分布式水文模型，并利用每个子流域的观测数据进行了预先校准。研究区大多数子流域都提供了超过25年的观测流量数据，并通过比较模拟流量和观测流量的季节模式来进行评估。结果表明，当流域规模超过 5000 km2 时，GCM 输出提供了优异的流量输出，但其在较小流域中的利用仍然有限。除了传统的评估方法之外，所提出的水文评估方法为水文学家提供了直接和全面的理解。
The controlled simulation output of a super-high resolution atmospheric model (AGCM20) was evaluated from a hydrologic point of view, using a distributed hydrologic model and observed river discharge data. The AGCM20 output for the current climate condition should be able to provide a current river flow pattern when it is converted into river discharge information using a reasonably well-prepared hydrologic model. For this evaluation, a distributed hydrologic model was composed for various basin scales ranging from 60 km2 to 8,772 km2 in the Tone River Basin, Japan, and calibrated in advance, using observed data of each sub-basin. Most sub-basins in the study area provide more than 25 years of observed discharge data, and the evaluations were conducted by comparing seasonal patterns of simulated and observed discharges. The result shows that the GCM output provides excellent discharge output when the basin scale is more than 5,000 km2, while its utilization into a smaller basin remains limited. The proposed hydrologic evaluation method provides direct and comprehensive understanding to hydrologists in addition to the conventional evaluation method.