The effects of near wins and near losses on self-perceived personal luck and subsequent gambling behavior
The effects of near wins and near losses on self-perceived personal luck and subsequent gambling behavior
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DOI：
10.1016/s0022-1031(02)00525-5
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发表时间：
2003-03
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Michael J. A. Wohl;M. Enzle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael J. A. Wohl;M. Enzle
哪个人最有可能继续赌博？是刚赢了一场的人还是刚输了一场的人？答案似乎往往是哪个赌徒觉得自己更幸运。两项实验调查了运气的感知（被理解为一种个人品质）是如何受到机会游戏中接近但未实现的结果的影响的。在实验1中，赌博游戏中输得差不多的人比赢得差不多的人更觉得自己运气好，尽管所有参与者实际上都赢了同样多的钱。此外，经历了近乎巨大损失的参与者比那些近乎巨大胜利的参与者产生了更多的向下反事实。最重要的是，自我感知运气的差异影响了未来的赌博行为。在幸运轮上输了一大笔钱的参与者比那些赢了一大笔钱的参与者对随后轮盘赌的赌注要大得多。实验2通过测试不同类型的接近结果可能产生的影响，并包括一个对照组，扩展了这些结果。讨论的重点是人们如何理解运气的新图景。
Which person would be most likely to continue gambling? A person who has just experienced a big win or a person who has just experienced a big loss? The answer appears often to be whichever gambler feels personally luckier. Two experiments investigated how perceptions of luck, understood as a personal quality, are affected by near, but unrealized outcomes during a game of chance. In Experiment 1, a near big loss at a gambling game heightened perceptions of personal luck relative to a near big win, even though all participants actually won the same modest amount. In addition, participants who experienced a near big loss generated significantly more downward counterfactuals than did those participants in the near big win condition. Most importantly, differences in self-perceived luck influenced future gambling behavior. Participants who experienced a near big loss on a wheel-of-fortune wagered significantly more on the outcome of a subsequent game of roulette than did those participants who experienced a near big win. Experiment 2 extended these results by testing the possible influence of a different type of near outcome and by including a control group. The discussion focuses on the emerging picture of how people understand luck.