Why Is Seasonal Density Stratification in Shelf Seas Expected to Increase Under Future Climate Change?
Why Is Seasonal Density Stratification in Shelf Seas Expected to Increase Under Future Climate Change?
复制标题
为什么在未来气候变化下，陆架海域的季节性密度分层预计会增加？
DOI：
10.1029/2022gl100448
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发表时间：
2022-11
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
J. Holt;J. Harle;S. Wakelin;J. Jardine;J. Hopkins
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Holt;J. Harle;S. Wakelin;J. Jardine;J. Hopkins
沿海和陆架海提供各种各样的生态系统服务，这些服务往往通过季节性密度分层对生物地球化学循环的控制而发挥作用。这些海洋极易受到气候变化的影响，尺度缩小研究一致预测下一个世纪季节性分层会增加，但没有明确的解释。在这里，我们重新审视了一个完善的沿海海洋混合理论，并通过一个新的对2100年西北欧大陆架海洋进行降尺度模拟的集合来证明，随着温度的增加，膨胀率的增加足以持续增加季节分层。在浮力输入和混合之间存在封闭平衡的地方，膨胀率的小变化被放大为分层的大的相对变化。全球加热和分层之间的这种简单联系大大减少了在世界各地海洋中预测这一关键参数的不确定性。
Coastal and shelf seas provide a diverse range of ecosystem services, which are often mediated by seasonal density stratification through its control on biogeochemical cycles. These seas are highly vulnerable to climate change and downscaling studies consistently project an increase in seasonal stratification over the next century, but without a clear explanation. Here we revisit a well‐established theory of coastal ocean mixing and demonstrate with a new ensemble of downscaled simulations for the Northwest European continental shelf seas to 2100 that the increase of expansivity with temperature is sufficient to consistently increase the seasonal stratification. Where there is a closed balance between buoyancy input and mixing, small changes in expansivity are amplified to a large relative change in stratification. This simple link between global heating and stratification substantially reduces uncertainty in projections of this key parameter in seas around the world.