The Impact of the Reduction in Tobacco Smoking on US Lung Cancer Mortality, 1975-2000: An Introduction to the Problem
The Impact of the Reduction in Tobacco Smoking on US Lung Cancer Mortality, 1975-2000: An Introduction to the Problem
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01745.x
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
McCarthy, William J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feuer, Eric J.;Levy, David T.;McCarthy, William J.
为了更好地了解吸烟的贡献及其在肺癌中的作用变化，本文介绍了一期《风险分析》特刊，该杂志研究了1975-2000年美国30-84岁男性和女性吸烟与肺癌死亡率之间的关系。使用了六个模型，它们是由国家癌症研究所的癌症干预和监测建模网络(CISNET)资助的肺癌建模师联盟的一部分。从国家健康访谈调查得出的出生队列特定吸烟史开始，模拟了三种情景：实际烟草控制(观察到的吸烟趋势)、完全烟草控制(如果在1964年第一份卫生局局长的报告之后所有吸烟都停止的话，本可以实现的吸烟率下限)和不烟草控制(如果吸烟模式在20世纪50年代第一次研究开始告知公众吸烟的危害之前盛行的吸烟率的反事实上限)。使用这三种情景和肺癌模型，可以估计1975-2000年期间避免的肺癌死亡人数和百分比，在如果烟草控制努力立即和完美的情况下本可以避免的所有死亡人数和百分比。结果在多个模型中的可变性提供了结果对模型假设和结构的稳健性的度量。这些结果不仅描绘了烟草控制对肺癌死亡率的已有影响，而且还提供了仍需实现的范围。
To better understand the contribution of cigarette smoking, and its changing role in lung cancer, this article provides an introduction to a special issue of Risk Analysis, which considers the relationship between smoking and lung cancer death rates during the period 1975-2000 for U.S. men and women aged 30-84 years. Six models are employed, which are part of a consortium of lung cancer modelers funded by National Cancer Institute's Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET). Starting with birth-cohort-specific smoking histories derived from National Health Interview Surveys, three scenarios are modeled: Actual Tobacco Control (observed trends in smoking), Complete Tobacco Control (a counterfactual lower bound on smoking rates that could have been achieved had all smoking ceased after the first Surgeon General's report in 1964), and No Tobacco Control (a counterfactual upper bound on smoking rates if smoking patterns that prevailed before the first studies in the 1950s began to inform the public about the hazards of smoking). Using these three scenarios and the lung cancer models, the number and percentage of lung cancer deaths averted from 1975-2000, among all deaths that could have been averted if tobacco control efforts been immediate and perfect, can be estimated. The variability of the results across multiple models provides a measure of the robustness of the results to model assumptions and structure. The results provide not only a portrait of the achieved impact of tobacco control on lung cancer mortality, but also the bounds of what still needs to be achieved.