Conservation triage or injurious neglect in endangered species recovery
Conservation triage or injurious neglect in endangered species recovery
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1525085113
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发表时间：
2016-03-29
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Gerber, Leah R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gerber, Leah R.
根据《美国濒危物种法》列出濒危和受威胁物种被认为是对灭绝的防御和实现濒危种群恢复的解决方案，但前提是在列出后采取有效的保护行动。政府为物种保护和恢复提供的资金数额是成功恢复的最佳预测因素之一;然而，政府的支出在物种群体之间既不足又极不成比例，而且各物种的拟议预算和实际预算之间存在显著差异。鉴于需要评估和保护的濒危物种越来越多，迫切需要一种明确的方法来分配恢复资金。在这里，我提供了一个正式的决策理论的方法，侧重于投资回报率作为一个目标和一个contrarentmechanism，以实现预期的复苏目标。我发现，在为1,125个物种实施恢复计划所需的12.1亿美元/年中，实际上只有不到25%的资金用于恢复。超过建议的恢复预算的支出不一定会转化为更好的保护成果。相反，仅仅消除“昂贵但徒劳”的恢复计划的预算盈余就可以提供足够的资金来消除180多个物种的资金赤字。通过预算压缩进行分类，可以为更大样本的物种提供更好的资金，而更大样本的资金充足的恢复计划应该会产生更好的结果，即使是偶然的。加强我们对审慎决策的关注，有可能在避免濒危物种法案所列物种灭绝方面取得预期成果。
Listing endangered and threatened species under the US Endangered Species Act is presumed to offer a defense against extinction and a solution to achieve recovery of imperiled populations, but only if effective conservation action ensues after listing occurs. The amount of government funding available for species protection and recovery is one of the best predictors of successful recovery; however, government spending is both insufficient and highly disproportionate among groups of species, and there is significant discrepancy between proposed and actualized budgets across species. In light of an increasing list of imperiled species requiring evaluation and protection, an explicit approach to allocating recovery funds is urgently needed. Here I provide a formal decision-theoretic approach focusing on return on investment as an objective and a transparentmechanism to achieve the desired recovery goals. I found that less than 25% of the $1.21 billion/year needed for implementing recovery plans for 1,125 species is actually allocated to recovery. Spending in excess of the recommended recovery budget does not necessarily translate into better conservation outcomes. Rather, elimination of only the budget surplus for "costly yet futile" recovery plans can provide sufficient funding to erase funding deficits for more than 180 species. Triage by budget compression provides better funding for a larger sample of species, and a larger sample of adequately funded recovery plans should produce better outcomes even if by chance. Sharpening our focus on deliberate decision making offers the potential to achieve desired outcomes in avoiding extinction for Endangered Species Act-listed species.