Carbon dioxide emissions reduction in China's transport sector: A dynamic VAR (vector autoregression) approach
Carbon dioxide emissions reduction in China's transport sector: A dynamic VAR (vector autoregression) approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2015.02.052
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发表时间：
2015-04
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Bingjie Xu;Boqiang Lin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bingjie Xu;Boqiang Lin
中国的节能减排正日益受到世界的关注。目前，中国正处于快速城市化和工业化阶段，其特点是能源消费快速增长。中国的交通运输业是一个高耗能、高污染的行业。1980年至2012年，中国交通运输业二氧化碳排放量增长约9.7倍，年均增长7.4%。查明运输部门二氧化碳排放量增加的驱动力对于制定有效的环境政策至关重要。本文运用向量自回归模型分析了该行业二氧化碳排放变化的影响因素。结果表明，能源效率在减少二氧化碳排放方面起着主导作用。由于私家车数量激增，加上能源效益较低，私家车对减排的影响较货运量为大。城市化对二氧化碳排放也有显著的影响，因为大规模的人口流动和产业结构的转变。这些研究结果对中国有关部门制定适当的能源政策和交通部门的规划具有重要意义。
Energy saving and carbon dioxide emission reduction in China is attracting increasing attention worldwide. At present, China is in the phase of rapid urbanization and industrialization, which is characterized by rapid growth of energy consumption. China's transport sector is highly energy-consuming and pollution-intensive. Between 1980 and 2012, the carbon dioxide emissions in China's transport sector increased approximately 9.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.4%. Identifying the driving forces of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions in the transport sector is vital to developing effective environmental policies. This study uses Vector Autoregressive model to analyze the influencing factors of the changes in carbon dioxide emissions in the sector. The results show that energy efficiency plays a dominant role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Private vehicles have more impact on emission reduction than cargo turnover due to the surge in private car population and its low energy efficiency. Urbanization also has significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions because of large-scale population movements and the transformation of the industrial structure. These findings are important for the relevant authorities in China in developing appropriate energy policy and planning for the transport sector.